Loading ...Plunger Weekend Report
Most here know who Plunger is.
Bio ( click on “more” to see in full )
http://www.talkmarkets.com/contributor/Plunger#
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For New Readers …Plunger is Resident Market Historian at Rambus Chartology
He provides a Bi Monthly Weekend Report
Part 1 of this instalment is out early this morning.
This is the best piece I have seen penned explaining where we are on a macro level and Why .
It is the best and easiest to understand piece I have seen ever on the Post Bubble Contraction
Which is here and now ! A Stunning view of the Commodity Sector.
For members
Thanks Sir Plunger.
Appreciate the link and the read.
And I agree with the thesis although the timing is still QUITE up in the air, based on what I see.
Credit and banking ought to be leading the way down, and they’re relatively calm so far.
I’m watching my long term charts for SJB and FAZ/SKF for guidance on that front.
Also … my long term charts are also warning of ANOTHER multi month bull leg (up) for crude. I’m rather dismayed to see that, but I don’t fight the charts.
Finally, there’s an EW guy out there with an interesting methodology I’m tracking, from a LT perspective (10yrs plus). If his model is correct, US equities (SPX) have at least several years of NET upside left. Basically, the Elliott oscillator on the monthly peaked last January, so he tags that as iii of 3 at high degree (off Mar 09). Leaving iv & v of 3, then large 4 and large 5 to go into final highs. The Wave 4 could easily take several years all on its own, especially if it triangulates.
If that model doesn’t work, I still have my own markers that will give me a timely enough clue.
I suspect the central bankers know what’s at stake, even if they are shooting from the hip.
All the GLOBAL QE has given assets markets a lot of fuel, and so far only the Fed is pulling back. Sure the canaries are out there …. best not be placing long bets on the liquidity frontiers. And PMs may be tough sledding until we get into (or after we start) the panic stage for core asset markets.