Commodities and the general SM
It would be reasonable to think that the slaughter we are seeing in the commodities, from base metals and energy to gold and silver, is a prelude to a slaughter in the general SM. What do you thinK?
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Are you saying deflation? Been reviewing charts, I do not see anything bullish at the moment. Matter of fact, I might even hold a short position over the weekend…rare for me
Prelude yes.
But commodities have been losing ground for 10 years (crude) and 7 years (the rest).
Wasn’t that Babson’s work? The 10 year lag?
Still … EM might be the more immediate canary.
Its all related to dollar “strength” which another way of saying a $ borrowing hangover has arrived.
Oh and ES — I’m now IT and probably LT bearish SPX. (Does NOT extend to VLT as yet)
Are the Gold and Commodities take down just the opening salvos of The Great Global Deflation? It “feels” like its headed that way.
With commodities on their way to zero (I’m exaggerating, but you know what I mean), the cost of raw materials is tumbling. That should kill any chance of inflation for the time being.
It certainly looks like extreme deflation here, guys. Quite relentless.