Goldtent TA Paradise

$XBP Quarterly

1. DaveintheUK says:

   August 27, 2018 - 5:49 pm at 5:49 pm

   Things could get interesting as we near the deadline date of 29 March 2019, 11pm UK time. Why 11pm, I don’t know. Bedtime. Last one out please turn off the lights, possibly.

   Your chart appears to indicate the possibility of a re-visit to the 1985 lows of pounds versus dollar. Not sure what that was, somewhere around $1.05 perhaps, under $1.10 anyway.

   Maybe the pound will bottom if something happens on the Brexit date, like if we actually leave in some way, shape or form. I have my doubts – it’s it might be an excuse for a currency crisis followed by no exit maybe?
   Two years down the line and UK is no nearer to leaving than the day after the referendum 24 June 2016.

   I was on Kitco and there were 3 adverts out of 4 for reports saying pound is going to zero so maybe that’s a contrarian indicator.

   For me, the UK is a pure financial bubble economy, critically dependent on real estate prices and financial services. Therefore it will be fascinating to see if the UK housing market takes a hit on the actual Brexit as it did on the vote in 2016. High inflation with falling real estate prices would be a deadly combination indeed. Carney wants to get rid of the retail price index (RPI) seemingly in a hurry, with various excuses – because it’s a good long term indicator of real inflation over the decades:

   https://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/house-prices/value-uk-property-market-falls-269bn-house-prices-stagnate/

   https://moneyweek.com/491941/the-double-whammy-hitting-the-uk-housing-market/

   https://www.theguardian.com/money/2018/aug/27/londoners-selling-up-in-record-numbers-to-move-north

   I love the bit in the second article about how pubs and bars are starting to do well. We can all drown our sorrows and get pastered.

   • DaveintheUK says:

     August 27, 2018 - 5:52 pm at 5:52 pm

     I still fancy the possible upmove in the USDX to 160 as per the 35 year falling wedge breakout, on a bodged Brexit, illustrating that the European Union is a steel trap for people and capital.
     Could they surprise us as sort out all their problems in the next couple of years? … Hmmm …

     • DaveintheUK says:

       August 27, 2018 - 5:58 pm at 5:58 pm

       In this article we see that the “Brexit” process could take a long time:
       Dec 2020, Dec 2021, mid-2020s, for ever … and ever … as in the iCarly episode with the crazy family kidnapping them in their house.

       • JenkinsLane says:

         August 28, 2018 - 10:01 am at 10:01 am

         As of now, I’m simply following the chart. I think price falls to the bottom rail again, back to the top, down to the bottom rail again then breakout.

         $XBP is effectively GBPUSD. The question then is, to what extent is $XBP moving because of $USD strength/weakness and, in turn, what is driving that?
         I don’t think you can look solely at the UK economy when thinking about future movement in $XBP.