Goldtent TA Paradise

This Is How I see It

1. pedro_deleon says:

   July 19, 2018 - 12:09 pm at 12:09 pm

   I’ll be direct. I don’t buy cycles. Never have. Nothing with fixed date intervals for me.
   And while I post EW stuff (when it lines up with my work), its not what I do either.
   All I can do here, in terms of sketching out my take, is to provide a rough indication of what I see and rely upon.

   Lets take CEF, as representative of the metals. A key LT indicator for it now reads -221. The lowest I’ve seen going back 6 years. It hit -206 in late 2014, and price needed a divergent low in late 2015 to bottom. This indicator usually signals a buy as it nears -100 on a rise, like CCIs do. This could take the rest of the year, and still not find a final low.

   The Deep State sees challenges against their authority, and they are slowly turning off the spigot. Canaries keel over first.

   GDX may be only beginning its descent to deeper lows.

2. Northstar says:

   July 19, 2018 - 12:44 pm at 12:44 pm

   Appreciate your comments Pedro. Time will tell whether the dollar and gold cycles continue as they have since the early 1970’s or whether they are broken for the first time in 50 years.

3. Alex33 says:

   July 19, 2018 - 1:13 pm at 1:13 pm

   Referring to Pedro comments, I tend to agree shorter term cycles do not work, even longer term cycles are difficult. I remember that from mid 2015 lots of experts where calling for Gold to bottom and it took at least 6 month for that bottom to realize. As far as experts like Surf, Spock, Graddhy, I do not think anybody had forecasted the current decline/consolidation in metals would last that long as they were calling for the low to have happened in the beginning of July or sooner. I do not want to question any’s expertise, but do have the impression that for timing gold additional tools are needed.

4. KenS says:

   July 19, 2018 - 3:14 pm at 3:14 pm

   Cycles are a tool, subject to failure like any other tool. They seem to have taken on an almost superhuman character here at the tent lately, as if they are the final answer. My take is that if they really were that good, all the cycle people would be billionaires. From what I see, they are still strjuggling along with the rest of us. Just my take on things.

   • Fullgoldcrown says:

     July 19, 2018 - 9:52 pm at 9:52 pm

     IF Cycles worked ALL the time we would ALL be billionaires…however in the hands of good cycles analysts as we have here in this community….cycles can and do help those who are watching make more than they lose. Thats a lot better than just random trading IMO

     • norvast says:

       July 20, 2018 - 12:33 am at 12:33 am

       Thank you kind sir!

       And whose to say we cyclists are NOT billionaires, or at least very wealthy!

       Lots of assumptions in this post!

   • Tbone says:

     July 19, 2018 - 11:25 pm at 11:25 pm

     I totally agree.

     • Tbone says:

       July 19, 2018 - 11:27 pm at 11:27 pm

       I totally agreed with Ken, sorry. I don’t see the magic in cycles, its work like anything else.