Loading ...$1200 Approaching
I don’t know how many stop losses are set at that figure, but a spike below $1200 ($1195?) would make perfect sense to me. It would be perfect if we want to see $1400+ by the end of the year. Long term indicators are hitting rock bottom lows which gives a very high probability of a reversal. I’m going to stick my neck out and say that we will reverse upwards, convincingly before the end of next week and close the month above that lower bull market uptrend line. If that doesn’t happen, I’ll be very surprised and contemplating a return to bear market lows. It’s all about probability for me. Having examined all of the evidence I can find, I would place the odds at around 90% for a bullish resolution. All we can do now is watch and wait.
I admire your calm resolve Northstar …in the face of a gale force wind .
🙂
Ha ha. Many may see it as foolish, but I’ve been expecting $1195-$1200, so I’m mentally prepared.
Definitely not foolish. OPEN MINDED and PREPARED is more like it. I’ve agreed with your research
At long last we are starting to get some capitulation selling in the AUS gold miners.
NCM.AX has just printed a lower low than the last DCL, a failed daily cycle.
A couple of days of this and we should see very few optimistic bulls left, a great sign!
Then a bounce followed by a re-test maybe around the FOMC meeting.
Looking good!
The USD is having another crack at a new high for this daily cycle on calendar day 10, and gold is moving lower as a result.
Calendar day 10 may still be a little early to host a DCH so expect some more capitulation selling in the miners for the remainder of this week.
My favourite AUS gold miner may run all the way through to the 31 Jul FOMC meeting, or calendar day 68, before hosting a DCL (it often cycles 68-72 calendar days low-low), although I suspect it will bounce when gold hosts an ICL, then re-test or break lower after 7 calendar days or FOMC.
You call that looking good Sir Norvast ?
Well it is a yearly cycle low (YCL) so we can expect sentiment to be at rock bottom!
This is the most critical YCL for some time as the YCL will correspond with the USD topping so it is a brilliant opportunity to buy some excellent valued small and mid tier gold producers.
Historically these moves into a YCL seem to take forever and timing is everything so best to be patient and await the opportunity that will be created.
“Calendar day 10 may still be a little early to host a DCH…”
But wouldn’t it be nice!
Sorry,my last was intended as a reply to Norvast.
Also, Norvast, if you’re there, what do you make of the way the DC count is going for the dollar vs. for the Euro? We’re in a new DC for the dollar but not for the Euro (day 35 yesterday)? Is that weird?
Thank you.
I do not follow the Euro but I would like to think 29 May was the ICL in which case it is currently on calendar day 51 so in the timing band to host a DCL
Alternatively 21 Jun was the ICL and so we are on calendar day 28 which is far too early to host a DCL
The currencies are all getting stretched as a result of the USD strength, and all in their timing band to host a DCL
Even if gold hosts an ICL here in the next couple of days the re-test into the FOMC meeting will hold back any advance.
Normally the re-test is around 7 calendar days after the low is printed.
I’m seeing CD 51 myself which makes me happy wrt the dollar, and therefore wrt gold. Thanks for your insight about 7 calendar days for likely retest of the low. Appreciate it.
Sir norcast
Your expectations if it happens for dollar would it still be left translated ?
Yes once the USD hosts a DCH it should leave time for a failed left translated daily cycle leading into the ICL for the USD
It is currently in week 22 so there remains plenty of time for a left translated daily cycle.
Thank you
So much for my prediction for the dollar to fall to 91+ and gold to rise to 1365+-. I suppose that can still happen, but it increasingly looks less and less likely.
Keep the faith AP. I believe 91 and $1365 will come this year. This is a classic capitulation low at a cyclical turning point, with an overbought dollar and oversold PMs.
Seems like there is more downside than up side right now, a test of 1150 wouldn’t surprise me. A break of 1150 would not be good.
I think you may be too bearish there Tbone. I would say downside is approximately $25 in the next few days (we could turn up anytime now though). Upside in the next 6 months (in my view) is $150 to $350.
I don’t think so.