Goldtent TA Paradise

Dollar Rolling Over Soon

1. Music Man says:

   July 5, 2018 - 2:17 pm at 2:17 pm

   Lookin’ good, Billy Ray ;0

2. DaveintheUK says:

   July 7, 2018 - 1:41 pm at 1:41 pm

   that would be “normal” behavior of the dollar over the past 30-40 years then. Average cycle 7.5 years down then 7.5 year up but variable. New low at the bottom each time.

3. DaveintheUK says:

   July 7, 2018 - 1:57 pm at 1:57 pm

   I had 3 possible scenrios for the US dollar, described here.
   1. A continuation of the log term downtrend (like your chart)
   2. A gradual rolling into a slow uptrend.
   3. A magnificent breakout to the highs of 1985.

   2 and 3 were based on the credit contraction scenario, the Kondratieff wave coming to the end of its 80 year cycle from the credit crash of 1929-33 to the credit crash of 2008-whenever. This might trump (pun intended) the 45 year downcycle in the dollar since the early 70s.

   I also looked at the denominator of the dollar index, Euro (57%), Yen (~20%?), Pound (~10%) from memory and tried to think which of these is any good to bring us a new bear market in the US dollar? Of course they might all be trash and the dollar could be even worse but you know what I am getting at.

   USDX possibilities:
   http://1000gold.blogspot.com/2015/11/breakout-from-long-term-us-dollar-bear.html

   Image address for chart:
   http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-hxoUv26wz8g/VkPV_TscnoI/AAAAAAAABOU/8hg3ln9SrvI/s1600/USDX%2Bcharts%2Bedit6%2B160.png

   • DaveintheUK says:

     July 7, 2018 - 2:00 pm at 2:00 pm

     The first sign for me of potential significance was the higher low in the dollar in 2011 “after” the financial crisis (actually on the US debt ceiling debacle) compared to the low in 2008 “before” the financial crisis. I wondered if that was a significant turn in secular terms.

     • DaveintheUK says:

       July 7, 2018 - 2:03 pm at 2:03 pm

       Of cuorse, I should also mention that there was a MASSIVE non-confirmation there with gold in 2008 & 2011.
       No new low in the dollar in 2011 (72 in 2011 vs 71 in 2008) versus massive new high for gold ($1920 in 2011 vs $1030 in 2008), marking the end of gold’s 12 year uptrend and the upturn in the US dollar.