Loading ...Gold 6 month Intermediate Cycle Low?
This looks & smells like a surge out of a 6 month Intermediate Cycle Low (ICL) for Gold and PM’s here but a bit more evidence is needed before I take any additional positions out of what looks like an ICL. The next step for Gold is a close above the 10ma on the Daily followed by a close above the 10wma on the Weekly near 1287/1288. The miners have already done this — my 4th chart on GDX chart shows that the miners do not seem to want to wait for the metals. I forecasted this ICL in last weekend’s report, but again, a bit more confirmation is needed before adding. Gold did test the 10ma on the daily today but could not close above it.
My 3rd chart, a GDX weekly & shows how tight the Bollinger Bands are now with almost 2 years of consolidation or basing. There are no guarantees in markets but I have not seen them this tight in a very long time so a big move is likely coming so buckle up.
https://surfcity.co/2018/07/01/gold-intermediate-cycle-update-19/
I have the USD moving lower today after testing & regaining the 10ma yesterday. I am expecting the USD to roll over here into a failed Trading Cycle which will lead to it’s longer Intermediate Cycle Low (ICL). The miners (GDX & GDXJ) backtested their 10ma’s yesterday, found support and closed above the 50ma today (GDXJ closed above both the 50ma & 200ma). Gold came within $3 of a failed Intermediate Cycle and GLD found a double bottom at 117.40 (see attached weekly chart with a bullish reversal candle forming).
Stocks (SPX) appear to have found a short term Trading Cycle Low (TCL) and despite today sell off should move higher to test the previous Intermediate High near 2800 before finding a Intermediate Cycle high (big buying on weakness number on SPY from the WSJ). Crude has surged past my 74.96 mark this morning which should be very bullish longer term.
Does a failed intermediate cycle occur when a cycle bottoms at a price below the previous cycle low? If so, when the gold price updates, it may print a price point for today that is lower than the December 2017 ICL due to the dip that occurred late last night. Would that change the picture at all going forward in your view? Thanks.
Failed ICLs are never a good thing but the Futures data feed I am looking at shows a low at 1238.80 which is above the 1236.54 ICL in December 2017. Price has not failed just yet and even if it does we will still get a rally out of the ICL but a Failed ICL would make me more cautious.
Thanks Surf.
Thanks Surf. Good to know that, so far, we’re not facing a failed ICL,as well.:)
Thanks to all the cycle guys for keeping their eye on the ball wrt the dollar and gold.
And although I’m not a Bitcoin fan, I find it interesting that it too seems to have bottomed into an ICL/YCL at the same time as gold, or perhaps at the same time that the dollar is topping.
http://schrts.co/k1QrJo
Curly Top, I don’t have an ICL in BTC just yet. My cycle timing indicates later this summer.
Surf do you expect a falling dollar (inflation) to keep the stock market afloat in nominal terms?
Hi Curly Top, I do not see a strong correlation between the USD and the Stock Market but I am not yet a stock market bear. Rather, my cycle work indicates new highs are ahead after the next ICL later this summer.
Thanks.