Loading ...If Past Is Prologue…
…and cycle theory counts for anything, we are likely looking at a very exciting development in the next couple of weeks. I’m focussing on the bigger picture, but I think Norvast has it nailed with the daily and weekly cycles. Assuming another week or 2 before the dollar rolls over, we’re likely to see another spike above the 200dma much as we did in 2002…
If the dollar index climbs to 96, gold would equate to $1240-$1245, but a panic puke to the $1200 area wouldn’t surprise me at such a crucial, definitive turning point. Lets have a closer look…
and today…
I remain highly confident in this outcome (all things considered), but acknowledge the non-zero possibility of the dollar soaring and gold falling below $1000.
I like Chart # 1
great eye Northstar
Yes the first chart is terrific and exactly defines the 15 year cycle Northstar but it is a monthly chart and the red MA looks like a 50 month MA
Once the USD closes below the 50 month MA it is toast!
Just another 1-2 weeks.
That’s odd, I had ‘daily’ selected when I drew the chart, and the key says 200 for the moving average.
That isn’t a 200 day ma, not on a monthly chart
Here is the 50 month sma on the USD
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/$DXY/technical-chart?plot=CANDLE&volume=total&data=MO&density=X&pricesOn=1&asPctChange=0&logscale=0&indicators=SMA(10);SMA(50)&sym=$DXY&grid=1&height=500&studyheight=100
Try again…
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/$DXY/technical-chart?plot=CANDLE&volume=total&data=MO&density=X&pricesOn=1&asPctChange=0&logscale=0&indicators=SMA(50)&sym=$DXY&grid=1&height=500&studyheight=100
Im a little confused. 24 bars on this chart representing 6 months, so 1 bar per week = weekly chart. Am I wrong ? The ma labelled as 200 must be 200 weeks, but Ill check properly later.
I hope you’re right of course. Large moves in the dollar’s value in both directions seem to be increasingly the norm. I’d say the dollar has been notoriously bad as a currency with respect to having a stable value. Just since Dec 2017 alone we’ve seen 30% swings in the value of the dollar. That’s no way to run an airline. I see big trouble for the dollar ahead.
That is big trouble for the USD. I’m buying the AUD as we speak.
I think rising interest rates coupled with economic woes over seas (Emerging markets and EU problems) will bring money in to the US and drive the dollar higher.
Ken,yeah higher US int. rates should push dollar up.But we may very likely see higher int. rates everywhere. And the implications of the commodity cycle on natural resource currencies like the Aussie dollar, Canadian dollar, can’t be ignored. As for the EU, obviously it’s a complete mess, but the currency, the Euro(new name for the DM)is potentially, and maybe paradoxically, another story.