All Eyes On $1240
As Fully has said, it’s an important number. Will it hold ? WTFDIK ? Quite possibly not. The support line must be pretty hot though. Here’s my chart FWIW…
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WTFDIK ?
Quite a bit. You take time to piece together fundamentals, TA, cycles, charts etc. to make heads or tails out the markets. What more can one do? It’s a market with a thousand moving parts(some of which may not really be on the up-and-up) and your attempt to predict the weather is appreciated. Cheers and good luck.
Thanks CT. In the face of mother nature and market forces, I sometimes wonder. Let’s just hope all the pieces come together as I’m expecting in the next couple of weeks 🙂
Trend line breaks in metals have several times (both 2016 and 2017) be the ultimate bottom, so I believe it is not the best tool to use to time entries/exits in metals as one always gets too bearish when market bottoms. The question however is, do we have a similar fake-out breakdown as before?
Trend line breaks …is not the best tool to use to time entries/exits.
Agreed … not just in metals.
We should be near “a bottom” … with more than usual emphasis on “a”.
My work agrees with HZJ (see Sunday AM tweets) in that we may have most of 1 down, soon 2 up, of larger 5 down.
How does that fit in with cycle theory Pedro?
Gold will break US$1240 so as to extend the YCL
Far too early to get excited about a gold & miner bottom just yet – another week and I will start looking!
AUS miners are just moving down after a DCH so they will need 2 weeks to host a DCL
Thanks Norvast
Do you think the YCL is due now and not in Dec?
If gold breaks 1236 then the YCL will extend out to 18-19 months
Thank you Norvast. Is there a possibility of ICL then a pop into new IC then another fail and ycl bottom into years end…or YCL must happen every time after a failed IC? Im sure youre a busy man so dont mean to bug you, just trying to learn. Thanks!
Given that I think we will more than likely break 1236 that will provide us with an extended YCL
Often there is a “balancing” of cycles (short followed by long and vice versa) so there is some risk that the next yearly cycle will be short and we host another YCL at year’s end, but that is not my expectation.
With the USD hosting an important ICH (weekly cycle high) in week 18 (so far) then that leaves us with around 8+ weeks where the USD will mover lower into it’s ICL.
Plus often the second weekly cycle out of an YCL is weaker so the next weekly cycle for the USD is likely to be weaker giving us another 26+ weeks of clear air for gold.
That makes say 44+ weeks where the environment for gold advancing is much better than it has been for some time.
Under those conditions I would expect a right translated weekly cycle for gold after the ICL/YCL (?) is hosted.
Firstly let’s see if we break 1236 – just remember this cycle has at least another week to run (refer my comments about the AUD).
The AUD is heading lower and if it is to be left translated (which I expect) it will not host an ICL until mid-late next week.
Keep looking at the Jun-Jul 2013 gold fractal folks as it is lining up beautifully in terms of time and chart shape – although I suspect the early Jul drop may be the ICL this time around!
Thank you!!
News travels slow in the land down under!
By camel where I live!
The traders (not camel) and/or investors in AUS gold miners have just heard the news that gold is going down!
The miners are now seriously making their way lower toward a DCL…
The ones I follow hosted a DCL 22-24 May so I expect the next one around calendar day 42-47 = 03-08 Jul