Loading ...$GOLD – Are we there yet?
Kid, on a long drive, “Are we there yet? Are we there yet?”
Dad, getting grumpy, “I told you before. We won’t be there ’til dark.”
Kid, “Is it dark yet?”
Well, is it dark yet, gold bugs? Or dark enough? The dual support at trend line, and the Oct Nov bottom from last year can’t hold because:
a) its too obvious
b) we’re waiting on a false break below support to throw the bulls off balance
c) stock market, interest rates, central banks, etc
d) we haven’t hit the $900 bottom yet where gold stocks are practically free
Pick one. Any of them could be right. Or all of them. Here is today’s gold chart for your consideration.
If you ask me what’s next I’ll tell you truthfully that I don’t know. But I’m getting ready to make a bet…
Sir Foxy
I am sure I am joined by many lurkers in saying you are posting some great Sh!t.
You are a VIP here now .
🙂
There’s nothing like a dose of humor served up with some provocative charts
In fact just a regular dude watching and learning along with everybody else. And maybe having a little fun. Thanks for the kind words.
Good post SF. Very nearly there. The dollar is running out of steam and gold is running out of sellers. A final $30 drop is possible in the next week or 2.
Ron Rosen, too, is looking for a C leg down to $1125 between now and the EOM. I’m with you but I don’t see very much of a drop here, and, the PM buyers look to me as if they’re buying cautiously ahead of a , maybe, drop.
Thanks for your posting today. Please give Prince Harry a big Hello from me.
Correction:
Ron Rosen did NOT say by the EOM. The when was not specified.
Sorry.
“Are we there yet?”
I am afraid not. We are some distance away!
Terrific chart.
Most people are feeling terribly nervous about breaking the channel while others are suggesting that if gold breaks 1237 then it is all over for this long cycle and the bull.
On your chart you can mark the Dec 2015 ICL a YCL and similarly the Dec 2016 ICL.
But there is much conjecture whether the Dec 2017 was a YCL. It is certainly in the right time-frame but…
If this current correction falls below 1237 then the YCL is simply extended, and with the USD so strong, and soon to print an ICH out of a 3 year cycle low (Feb 2018), then there is every chance gold will break 1237
Now when & if the USD hosts a higher DCH/ICH then it theoretically should be the highest the USD will reach until well after the 15 year cycle low sometime in 2023 (?)
So unless I am missing something then I am unsure as to why a break of the trend line or a break of 1237 will mean the end of the gold bull.
Okay that is the theory but what about some practical.
Take a look at any AUS gold miner, say NST.AX, SAR.AX, RMS.AX three of my current favourites, and all have or about to host a DCH in their current daily cycles. So these miners are going to fall into a DCL in 2-3 weeks time when gold has hosted an ICL and is rapidly advancing? I don’t think so!
The gold daily cycle low-low so far (21 May – 21 Jun) is only 31 calendar days and well short of a daily cycle into an ICL
The USD daily cycle low-high so far (14 Jun – 21 Jun) is only 7 calendar days and that seems too short for the USD to roll over and go away!
So I would advise that kid to shut up and sit quiet for awhile until the journey is over!
SF, love the charts keep it up!
One thing to note, many many people were saying at the recent top, check out that divergence (on MACD/RSI) I’m sure you’ll remember?
Anyway something no one I feel has mentioned is check out the divergence from Dec 17 to now, new lows in MACD, no lower price. Do they now cancel out?
I’m going with b)”we’re waiting on a false break below support to throw the bulls off balance”. Thanks for sharing!