I know there are many here who expect the dollar to rally significantly in coming months, but I’m not one of them. Why ? Time and cycles are in charge here. As Norvast has explained (very well), the dollar bottomed back in 2008 and began its climb, governed by the upward part of its 15 year cycle. It peaked back in 2016, and has since been pulled down by the downward part of its 15 year cycle. By some metrics, this upswing has been further and longer than I anticipated. Nonetheless, looking back at the previous cyclical downturn, there are some marked similarities.

The dollar appears to be struggling to decisively breach the 95 area. The 200wma converges here too, and ominously, is beginning to flatten out, in preparation for the decline. It could yet manage it, and claim the 96-97 region, but the clock is ticking away, and I believe the next downswing will be the decisive one as far as the entire dollar/PM/commodities outlook is concerned. The miners seem to be sensing it, and have been very resilient over recent days. I firmly believe we’ll see the dollar fall below 70 by 2023 when its cycle bottoms. I’d then expect at least 3 years of sideways ‘chop’, as in previous cycles, allowing gold to reach it cyclical peak (along with commodities) around 2026.

Here’s how I’m seeing things develop…

Edit – corrected to 200wma