Loading ...Some Currencies
First off let’s look at a couple of currencies that rely heavily on commodities.
Australian dollar – $XDA Daily (the Ozzie?)
Canadian Dollar -$CAD – We call it the loonie because our central bank doesn’t own any gold. They are the loonies! Really? Nah. The new dollar coin was supposed to be Canada geese, but the Royal Canadian Mint lost the die (really), so they made a new one with a loon on it.
If the Ozzie and the Loonie are breaking down what does that say about commodity inflation expectations? Hmm, just asking.
About this next chart, does it look bullish to you? IMO it looks like it should break out topside. Its the Japanese YEN – INVERTED. Up on the chart is down, and down is up for $YEN. Remember, gold and the YEN are like bread and butter, or peas and carrots. They hang together. This chart needs watching.
As proxy for the USD here is a look at the last 4 years daily line chart of UUP. Not to say the rising dollar can’t turn down. It can, but it seems to have caught the wind in its sails.
The USDU is a $USD fund weighted less heavily to the EURO, and is therefore a more balanced view of the USD. It still looks bullish (although there is a potential negative divergence building in the oscillators)
USDU – Daily
A longer view of USDU, line chart format…
Conclusion: if gold is trading as a commodity, and if commodities have peaked for now (have they?), that’s not good for gold.
If OTOH, gold is trading as a currency is it likely to rise against a surging USD? Could be tough. Wouldn’t that imply a loss of confidence in ALL fiat currencies?
That being said there are yet a few brave PM stocks in bullish mode. Will leave that topic for another post. Anyone?
I really like your inverted Yen chart. Inverted Gold also makes me think we are headed lower. Thanks.
Thanks, Ken. I don’t have an inverted GOLD chart, but its a good idea. I’ll have to make one.
Sir Fox : You have outdid yourself
🙂
The Aussie is the one that troubles me the most.
Ha…I didn’t know that about the loonie…the Canadian Mint lost the golden goose ? Dudley DoRight ?
hehe
I thought the AUD had hosted an ICL on 09 May BUT right now it has almost failed thereby extending the weekly cycle and ICL. It will most likely fail later this week after a brief bounce.
It is currently in week 28 having hosted a ICH (weekly cycle high) back in week 7 – terribly left translated.
It is currently on calendar day 40 and may not host an ICL for another 7+ calendar days.
When it hosts an ICL so will gold so worth keeping an eye on the Aussie dollar IMO (in lieu of their soccer team!)
Excellent charts silver fox.
Any idea where resistance level maybe for the AUD?
I am not much good at that sort of stuff? Maybe 73.5?
It looks like lateral support could come in at around 73.5, just as you said, Norvast. If that AUD bear flag is a half way point from the mid April high to the early May low, then we can have a price objective of 73. Its possible these guesstimates are be wild off the mark.
Hadn’t thought about $AUD and $GOLD bottoming together. Thanks for enlightening me in that regard. Your input is much appreciated.