The Demise of Bonds is Greatly Exaggerated….
Triangle into a parabolic uptrend? I think so… next leg up should begin soon imo as money pours into everything dollar as the dollar rises over the next 5.5 years to new all time highs…
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Very interesting as usual Chuck!
“the dollar rises over the next 5.5 years to new all time highs…”
The chart does not lie.
But that kind of rally would kill carry trades worldwide, and would at some point unleash a recession on the US.
Maybe we get flight to quality (cough cough) or maybe US budget deficits explode on synchronized global economic contraction, then …. who will fund the deficits? And at what rates as sovereign debt goes parabolic too?
Oh, I too believe it will end badly… but we have to see the largest bubbles ever first imo…
Chuck- I take it that you are clearly not in the long term bull camp with the Dow still having many years left in this run and higher beyond what we can imagine now. I ask because I’ve noticed a clear pattern of commodities running for 10 then enter a bear market for over 20. Eg., stocks ran up between 1980-2000 while gold was in a bear market for that 20 year period. Gold ran higher the next 10 years (2000-2010) while stocks would suffer two (2) bear markets during that period but regained its footing in 2012. That pattern has repeated itself in the 70’s as well (gold up for 10 years from 1970 -1980 while stocks churned during that time). It’s a pattern we’ve seen even before the 70’s. Even if we use 2009 as the bottom of the secular bear in stocks, that leaves us until 2029-30 until we top. But, even more strikingly, the NASDAQ consolidated for 17 years between 2000-16 and just broke higher a year and a half ago. Just seems so unlikely that with such a huge consolidation period, this move tops in just 5 more years especially since we are only 50% above the consolidation box. And with gold reaching its secular top in 2011, that means we have until about 2030 for stocks to run and gold to decline. Appreciate your thoughts.
I believe we’ll top close to November 2023 at between 70-100,000 Dow. I believe the. Dollar will top around this time as well. I believe oil will go down tremendously. Don’t have timing for it. Don’t have timing for a low in gold or others.
Thanks Chuck.
Chuck-on stock charts I just charted the following: $GDOW:$SPX to compare global stocks to their US counterparts. It supports your thesis thus far about how US stocks are way ahead of the rest of the world. Not ready yet for gold oil etc. Just wanted you to see for yourself if your interested. Regards.
Great analysis Gallo.
This is not a popular view but I tend to agree.
As Rambus has been showing the SMs just broke out of a huge ( Jaws of Life) consolidation pattern
Nice to hear from you Fully. Hope alls well.
I’d love to see it Gallo.
I created the chart on StockCharts again but for whatever reason it reverted to the DJIA chart on the link. Just use StockCharts and put in $GDOW:$SPX. Or type in the reverse $SPX:$GDOW to see how US stocks are butting up against a 2 1/2 year resistance and if we break through I suspect your thesis will strengthen.