This post is provided in conjunction with my comments to Fully’s “Silver Monthly” post below.  To repeat – It appears to me that Silver is in the process of printing a long term “Cup & Handle” formation.  Therefore, I don’t expect Silver to replicate the same time and price action as the “cup” formation.

Going back to chart school, the “handle” formation can take up to 1/2 the time that was used to create the “cup” formation, but usually completes in 1/3 the time or less.

Since the “cup” formation took about 30 years to complete, the “handle” formation should complete in about 10 years or less.  Again – to complete.  We’re in year 7, and certainly appear to be in the process of forming a rounded bottom.

In addition, as mentioned in the comment section of Fully’s post – 7 years of 10 seems to me like a reasonable expression of the fib ratio of .618 – so on that basis I would observe a turning point on the rounded bottom as “ripe on the vine”.

Regardless of whether you agree with the proposed wave count in the following chart, Silver certainly appears to be performing as one might expect within a “cup & handle” promulgation.  The underlying parabola will serve as sufficient “notice” as to whether “Fully’s fear” is warranted, or the “cup & handle” formation remains in play.

And just to expand on my hunch that the 7 year mark represents a reasonable expression of the fib ratio of .618, I decided to overlay Fib Time Zone lines starting with the 2011 top.  Of course – Fib Time Zone analysis is meant for marking time from a market bottom – not a top – but I’m merely marking time here – nothing more.

And looky-here, the end of an important fib timeline cycle (34 month) situated just a couple months or so away!  Note further how even though the timeline is misplaced – it still called some important turning points within a month or two…

So I’m sticking with my observation that a turning point on the in-progress rounded bottom is “ripe on the vine” – if the “cup & handle” formation is valid and will complete in a timely fashion.