In this post I am taking cues from Surf City’s cycles comments which suggest to me that there is still another low, below the May 21 intraday low, to come before the bottom is in for this intermediate cycle. Therefore, I am holding off for a few more days to see how the gold market behaves before pulling the trigger and buying a few more shares of Alamos Gold, a stock that I had not owned until my Richmont shares were converted due to the acquisition.

Surf’s analysis suggests that the shorter gold cycles typically last 22-29 days. For this short gold cycle to have bottomed on May 21 would mean that this cycle, the final short cycle before the commencement of the signature intermediate breakout cycle into the $1400’s, only lasted 14 days. This is possible, but i am looking for a low to occur closer to the typical timing band. Day 22 for this cycle, due to the holiday on Monday, is June 1.

Furthermore, the rally in gold that occurred this past week simply tested the very level that Surf was expecting of an intracycle relief rally, namely, the 200 DMA. However, a breakout into the $1320’s early next week would be an indication to me that the new intermediate cycle had begun.

So at this point I am still betting on another short lived washout event sometime within the next two weeks to convince everyone that gold actually is just a pet rock for sad old men, and that Newmont Mining will always be a giant in the land of pygmies.