Loading ...Sam’s EW for HUI
There was a post on this board in the last week or so suggesting that multiple analysts, using different methods includes cycles and EW, are calling for an imminent bottom for either gold or the miners. (I can’t remember which.)
So …based on my work, I don’t agree, except short term. And Sam doesn’t either. I know of several EW analysts looking for a bull move, one of which shall go un named. But I’m more than comfortable dissenting.
Here’s Sam’s most recent count.
He’s calling for an ED here, lasting through the summer. He believes we’re in blue c up of pink b up.
My own work via GDX says blue c up hasn’t started yet, but should soon …. must soon. It should be in five waves, so there should be plenty of opportunity to securely lash yourselves to the plank before we dive. I get the sense that some of you won’t be able to resist the urge to turn bullish.
Killer !
GDX is resisting the urge to break below the 40 wma with ever lower volume. I don’t see where they are going to get the energy to push higher out of this range without a large amount forced buying.
Sam who?
Gold is in super cycle wave b according to a reputable EWevr.
What is Sam’s view on LT EW count which structure gold is in?
Current Super cycle wave b is a single ZZ.
This is the quote from credible Analyst: No one does analysis like this.
“Within a triangle, Super Cycle wave (b) has no minimum requirement. It may make a new high above the start of Super Cycle wave (a) at 1,920.18 as in a running triangle.
Super Cycle wave (b) is likely to be very deep. The most likely structure to achieve a very deep correction is a zigzag or a zigzag multiple. An expanded flat may also achieve this.
There are more than 23 possible corrective structures that Super Cycle wave (b) may take.”
Who is the reputable EWr? Who gauges that reputation? Not many do gold, that I know of.
LT EW count for gold? … see my post under Keepers. That references Sam’s take also.
“Current Super cycle wave b is a single ZZ.”
ZZ is probable, yes. I have this as b wave in a 4th wave correction at very high degree. The 4th wave could be at cycle degree, or super cycle. I don’t concern myself too much with that labeling. Sam published his Cycle degree counts on Jan 5 this year on his forum. Cycle I = 1952; Cycle II in 1970, Cycle III in 2011. So cycle IV underway, in wave green B up of ABC zz. (green A ended late 2015)
Wave c up (coming this fall) of green B is shown in the posted chart. Then green C down of IV down. Same view as in my 2014 post. Nothing much has changed aside from challenging internal counts.
Wonderful!! Thanks for responding. I agree. Exactly the same count I have been following. What is the target of Super cycle wave b?
I plan to go flat when wave b completes. Wave c targets $ 800- 1000 or below.
BO Polny will be disappointed.
Anything that targets $800 to $1000 or below is (in my view) wrong. That would mean gold hitting new lows during the ‘up’ part of its 15 year cycle, with the cycle low in 2015 not being the 15 year cycle low at all. How would that make any kind of sense ? If that happens, both the gold cycle and dollar cycle will be broken along with (in all likelihood), the commodity cycle. I’m not saying that’s impossible, but surely very, very low probability.
I guess in being fractal, EW recognizes that EVERY cycle is potentially dominated by higher degree cycles that can swamp a lower degree cycle.
Last weekend, Peter Teller posted his view that equities are topping in their 500yr plus cycle. And posts a count in support. I neither endorse nor reject that. But I do recognize the failure that central banking has been since its inception. And the ability of the internet to spread that view. If the banking system AS WE KNOW IT TODAY fails, all bets are off when it comes to expecting shorter term cycles to persist.
That most certainly is how I view the world at this point.
Not selling mine, but not buying either.