Loading ...The Dollar Is Struggling
Just above the 50 week moving average and seemingly unable to hold onto 93. The bulls and bears are fighting it out tooth and nail. This price area looks to be pretty decisive. A significant move in either direction should lead to a resolution of this PM ‘coiled spring’.
And a reminder of where I think we’re going. Gold in Australian Dollars…
The AUS miners love a higher USD but are already close to hosting a daily cycle high like the uSD
It is the next daily cycle in the USD that is of concern.
A DCL (daily cycle low) soon around 17 May will then start the next daily cycle in the USD resulting most likely in a right translated daily cycle that will not top (DCH) until 10-16 Jun
When this occurs gold, CHF and AUD should move lower into their respective ICL’s which will only occur when the USD hosts a weekly cycle high.
No time to be getting excited about gold just yet. Another 4-6 weeks of pain!
Thanks Norvast. I’m somewhat concerned that the dollar is behaving rather more bullishly than it did at this point in the last 2 dollar cycle downturns. I find the shorter cycles frustrating and difficult to pin down (except in hindsight). I follow what you’re saying, and just hope it doesn’t alter the broader picture. At this point I don’t think it will, but I remain open-minded.
Come Jun the USD will host a weekly cycle high, and gold an ICL then off to the races for gold + miners, CHF and AUD
Combination of USD in second half of it’s weekly cycle and Gold at start of it’s weekly cycle!
Really appreciate your insights. It’ll be interesting to see just how high the dollar gets before rolling over. I suspect we need to test, and probably go slightly below, $1300 gold. Those tightening Bollinger bands are warning us that the lack of price action is getting to an unsustainable extreme.
It looks to me like the key number for the $USD is 92. As long as we stay above that I remain bullish on the dollar. See Rambus post “The Bear Case” on the sidebar.
I can see where you’re coming from Ken. I had the 50 week moving average (just below 92) as a very important level. It contained dollar rallies in the previous 2 cycle downturns. This is concerning.
Connundrum
The Aussie Dollar must drop for Gold in Australian Dollars to rise to new highs.
And it will do so when the USD moves into it’s next daily cycle and AUD will continue to move lower until the USD hosts a weekly cycle high in Jun.
Only then will gold likely bottom out, along with AUD and CHF
I’m impressed with the certainty of your predictions. It will be interested to see how it actually plays out!
Didn’t the dollar’s last IC occur the week of 12 Feb? If so, we’re on wk. 12 now and the ICH could come any time now, even this week.
A week 12 week ICH does not guarantee a right translated weekly cycle which is what is most likely out of a YCL.
The ICH is likely to occur at the DCH of the next daily cycle at around week 16
“A week 12 week ICH does not guarantee a right translated weekly cycle which is what is most likely out of a YCL.”
Sorry, I forgot. You told me this once before. And it’s a very good point. And I’d also expect a r/t cycle out of the YCL. I assume you’re using 12 Feb as the last YCL. The reason I forgot that is because I’m having a hard time actually seeing the yearly cycles at all. I look at the chart but don’t really see it that clearly. 2017 looks ok for a Feb YCL but what about 2016? Looks like May to me.
But your point is very well taken. My feeling was the dollar prob.topped today and gold bottomed a few days ago. Now your count challenges that. Anyway, thanks very much. I appreciate it. And hey, we’ll just wait another month or so if necessary. “It’s all good” as the kids say.
Hmmm. What if we get a surprise? A l/t weekly cycle out of the YCL. That would be very bearish for the dollar.
I was in a rush this morning Curly Top.
I think most of us are hoping for a left translated weekly cycle for the USD but that is not my expectation – not from a YCL
The ICL/YCL was 16 Feb so this is week 12
Gold appears to have hosted a DCL on 01 May and given that I think the DCL for the USD will be around 17 May then it is likely that gold will host a DCH around that same date.
Gold will therefore more than likely form a left translated daily cycle into the Jun ICL
“Gold appears to have hosted a DCL on 01 May and given that I think the DCL for the USD will be around 17 May then it is likely that gold will host a DCH around that same date.
Gold will therefore more than likely form a left translated daily cycle into the Jun ICL”
————-
That’s a very good reading of the tea leaves. Thank you very much because if it does play out as you suggest, I won’t panic. Appreciate your input. Very good luck to you.