Loading ...Am I Imagining This ?
If I am, just say and I’ll shut up. It’s been nice to see some PM follow through today, and the dollar, once again turned away from the 50 week moving average after yesterdays close shown below…
Anyway, back to the point. The more I look, the more convinced I am, that a big move is coming. Bigger than many expect, and very soon, as in days/weeks. We’ve seen the silver COT positions lately, and we know various markets are at crucial technical ‘hotspots’. A convergence of markets on important resistance/support/moving averages etc (like the dollar chart above). I could be completely wrong, but I’m sensing an end to the boredom. Here’s yet another chart that points to a massive build up of pressure (market forces). We could be about to see PM’s flushed down the toilet, but my money is on a rapid spike upwards for all the reasons I’ve been documenting. Here’s the SLV chart, with Bollinger Bandwidths added…
Seriously, at this rate, the SLV price chart will be a flat line in a few weeks. Another apex dead ahead, combining with a cyclical upturn, historically low price volatility, dollar pushing the limits of what is historically permissible during it’s cyclical bear, COT’s etc, etc. If those aren’t setting the alarm bells ringing, nothing will.
You r not imagining. EW for gold projecting wave C to continue higher to $1450. Just like I commented before gold to test 1300 before going higher.
Thanks Bikoo. We got pretty close to $1300 over the last few days.
I’m not a charter, just read/evaluate and try to interpret. I believe we are on the cusp of a fairly nice short term move (stronger than most would think), followed by a drop over the summer, then the real move. I agree with you that this May POP maybe stronger than most are anticipating. There is a lot of strong resistance lines about to be broken and a longer period of coiled up consolidation energy. The direction yet to be determined, but I believe it is up for gold.
It’s time to just watch and wait…
Yes, very nice work explaining the importance of the place where we were yesterday and today, and of course happy to see both gold and the dollar doing what you were predicting. Thanks very much for sharing your charts, etc. and I hope you make a mint:)
Thanks CT. The charts I’ve been putting on here lately have been a kind of ‘thinking out loud’ exercise. There can be all sorts of very valid looking chart patterns, but they end up morphing into something else. One thing is for certain though, that incredibly low volatility is a historical ‘outlier’, which means it can’t last for long. I was pretty lucky that I invested in mining stocks very soon after the 2016 low. I think the HUI was around 120-130 at the time. I later picked up some rare earth miners and Uranium interests, which have performed ok (averaging about +20% so far). If this commodity bull is real, and inflation picks up, as I expect it to, I should at least be getting a better return than leaving it in a bank. The stock market may power higher for a few more years, but it’s making me increasingly nervous. The end of the easy money era will have an impact, but if they end up having to lower rates again in a few years (as another crisis hits), god knows what will happen.
We seem to be very much on the same page. My primary thesis is currency crisis. As such, I expect the stock market to do very well(not in inflation adjusted terms of course) and will stay in for that reason(see Venezuela). For purchasing power protection, it’s PM’s and commodities for me going forward.
When we do slow down, I think the Fed’s firepower isn’t nearly what is was in ’08 so I don’t think they can apply the same medicine without an immediate negative effect on the dollar–thus keeping the stock mkt and commodities energized. I guess that’s the same as saying the Fed has lost control. I still think its mostly and mainly fundamentals that matter in investing medium to long-term as I prefer to do, but even when I’m sure of what I think is going on, something happens to show me that I didn’t cover all the angles after all,and my reading of the fundamentals was simply incomplete or wrong.
Swing low….
I like your charts NS! What do you think about the doomsday scenario from Rambus? What would be your line in the sand to exit and admit defeat? (I’m trying to think about some core holdings and where I might cut losses myself in that situation)
The other possibility is a false breakdown of that triangle to lure in the bears and then reversal to the upside! (IF I exit, I can guarantee THIS will happen 🙂
Hi Silverhawk. I’ve just posted my thoughts above 🙂