Gold Cycles
I know that some real cycle experts read the articles here, so they may help to shed some light on this. I haven’t seen very many posts highlighting golds daily/weekly cycles. I’ve been trying to analyse the last 2 or 3 months in terms of short cycle counts, and, to be perfectly honest, unless I’m missing something, I just don’t see anything that is really useable. Every time you think you you’ve identified a cyclical pattern, it fails and heads in the ‘wrong’ direction. Zooming out, the cycles become much clearer and more definite.
This all makes perfect sense to me. It’s a bit like trying to forecast the weather for 2 weeks ahead. Say May 15th. It’s possible to say with some degree of confidence that the trend is towards higher temperatures and lower rainfall, but that individual day may turn out to be the same temperature as today, with some light rain showers. That means that the day to day forecast is almost impossible, but on average, the 13th, 14th and 15th May are warmer and drier than the 1st, 2nd and 3rd.
Put another way, larger, longer term trends are much more powerful and will tend to prevail. Short term hourly or daily fluctuations are much weaker and easier to get completely engulfed by outside influences.
Cycles are tough..I agree…Nobody does it better than Surf City IMO….but they are far from perfect.
The goal is to get positioned in the cycle low timing band of course…like any discipline …no guarantees but the odds get on your side
I used to read https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordpress.com/ for cycle counts.I actually had forgotten about him!
I think he does a great job. I don’t have a subscription but many of his cycle reports are free.
Just skimmed his latest. He also sees the dollar DCL on on the 17th like Norvast. That’s 2 against my count.But I prefer the 17th.
Do you mean the daily cycle low that’s vehind us ? I’d be more interested when the next cycle high is expected and more importantly, will the dollar trend upwards over the next few weeks/months or turn back down. My views are well documented.
yeah,April 17 DCL was the last cycle behind us. But if that date’s correct, we’re only on day 10 now with every chance that this still can be a left translated cycle, maybe even peaking today or tomorrow. So that’s good news for your theory because there’s still a few days left in this dc for the dollar to make a high yet still be l/t since a typical DC is 25-30 days. At least that’s the way I see it.
I should have added that if there’s no swing high by day 12 or 13 (Friday) then the chances of a left translation go down a lot and the bear scenario may be over.
oh and one last thing, just my inexpert opinion on this stuff. I’ve been reading people who like cycle stuff for about 10 years–including Surf when he was over at Poly’s, and even Gary, but I just listen to their opinions and learn from them. I don’t have anything original to add.
Thanks Curly 😉
If 17 Apr was the DCL then the USD could advance 21-26 calendar days before hosting a DCH before falling into a DCL
This would most certainly be a right translated daily cycle.
Most expect this advance to stop at the FOMC announcement tomorrow but I am cautioning against that rather suggesting it may continue until around 08-10 May.
After the USD hosts a DCL (maybe around 17 May) it will commence another daily cycle which I am expecting to peak in early Jun.
As 16 Feb was more than likely a YCL then that peak will place us in about week 15-16 which will be classified as a right translated weekly cycle.
As I said in my previous comments as the USD falls after reaching that peak gold will advance out of an ICL (weekly cycle low) so you will have falling USD for 10+ weeks combined with rising gold.
And then the 30 year cycle and half cycle low idea makes much more sense. Seems like some important info is going to become clearer soon. Thank you.
Maybe June12/13 FOMC will be the trigger to gold next rally, who knows?
IMO $GOLD Futures has been in a complete death grip of the $USD YTD. IMO $Gold cycle is not cycling typical deviations as seen in 2017.
I’ve been taking my ques from the SGR and the DXY FWIW?
GLTA