Loading ...The USD – A Crucial Point Coming Up Right Now
From an earlier post…
The 50 week moving average needs to stop this advance. If it doesn’t, all bets are off and the dollar cycle is going to be very right translated, which is very bullish and could indeed take it to 160. Nail biting stuff if you hold PM’s. Here’s a close up of the action…
One clue could be the stocharstic indicator. It’s into overbought territory on daily/weekly/monthly and even this 5 year timescale…
Only when you zoom out to the 20 year timeframe does the stocharstic show low values. Notice how it behaved during the last dollar bear cycle…
This is a massive test for the dollar. The bulls and bears will be watching this very closely, because a turn down from here will open up the possibility of a move back below the long term support that gave us this bounce in the first place. That would be the final nail in the bull case.
If I am correct then 16 Feb was a YCL for the USD in which case the weekly cycle will be right translated.
The USD is currently in week 11 which does not guarantee it will be RT so I would expect this advance to continue.
On a daily basis the DCL (daily cycle low) was 17 Apr and I would expect the DCH (daily cycle high) to be around 26 calendar days thereafter = around 10-13 May
If that happens then the weekly cycle will be right translated and we will await the DCL and the subsequent daily cycle because it will be only then will the uSD host a weekly cycle high (ICH) which corresponds with an ICL for gold.
Sometime around 10-16 June.
Never fear because after that gold will be commencing a new weekly cycle while the USD will have 10+ weeks to run at the end of it’s weekly cycle which will be left translated.
Plus the second weekly cycle out of the YCL is often weak and left translated so plenty of upside for gold through to early 2019
My investment strategy has also been based upon both the anticipated new commod cycle and anticipated l/t dollar fall. I’ve put my money where my mouth is. Now is the moment of judgement. Thank you NW. I’m watching this carefully.
If what you say turns out to be true Norvast, it means another 6 weeks of the dollar rising. That would take it to levels that just didn’t happen in the last 2 cycles – straight through the 50 week moving average and well beyond. That makes me very nervous because it’s at variance to previous cycle behaviour (unless I’m missing something). I would’ve thought an argument could be made for a very bullish, right translated dollar cycle ?
Also, NW, what is you DC count? I have r/t at 23 with the prev. dcl on 27 march.
Sorry, that was addressed to Northstar.
I’ll have to bow to someone like Norvast for daily cycle counts. That’s an area that I’m very much in the process of learning. Longer cycles I’m fine with, but shorter cycle counts are something I need to spend time getting to grips with. The sooner the better.
OK thank you.
The DX at 160…would that be allowed? what about our exports?
I should stress that I strongly favour a resumption of the dollar bear, but if it doesn’t turn back down here, we will be in a position not previously seen during the first downleg of the dollar bear cycle. It would be unprecedented in the last 50 years.