Goldtent TA Paradise

Bull Or Bear ?

1. Curly Top says:

   April 30, 2018 - 2:56 pm at 2:56 pm

   Hi NS. Thanks for your work. I follow you religiously and appreciate your charts. I have a question about this one. on it you say that if gold doesn’t rise soon we’ll be left with a bearish left translation in the cycle. I don’t follow that. It seems to me that gold’s last IC bottomed the week of Dec 11, 2017 and that even if gold goes no higher during this IC, it would have peaked on week 17 (Apr. 9 2018) and that we should be moving down into the ICL this week or next. I don’t understand how that is left translated, or how a pending ICL in any way repudiates your main thesis about the new 16 year commodity cycle you believe we have entered. Thank you again.

   Here’s a link to the gold chart I used to base my question upon:(Sorry I don’t see an “add media” button to post the chart.
   http://schrts.co/7Z1G3t

2. Northstar says:

   April 30, 2018 - 3:44 pm at 3:44 pm

   Hi Curly Top. Thanks for your comments. What I was trying to say was that if we don’t break out soon and continue the bull targeting the 2026 high, we might see a repeat of the cycle 1 and cycle 2 scenario in the chart, with the peak alteady behind us. For many reasons I don’t actually believe that will happen though.

3. Music Man says:

   April 30, 2018 - 5:42 pm at 5:42 pm

   Thanks, Northstar, for posting this “food for thought” and to Curly Top for not being timid or fearful of admitting he doesn’t understand or know everything that is posted on this forum, which should be one of the main reasons for posting here, to “Fully” (no pun intended-LOL) understanding what is happening..

4. Northstar says:

   April 30, 2018 - 5:46 pm at 5:46 pm

   I hope everyone here feels free to ask questions without fear of being laughed at. I certainly don’t know everything either. I’m fortunate in a way, because some of the theory here is similar to methods I use in my career as a meteorologist. I still have a good deal to learn though.

5. norvast says:

   April 30, 2018 - 6:11 pm at 6:11 pm

   In theory the USD should move lower for 7-8 years from the peak in Jan 2017 and gold should advance during that period.

   That would the result in a right translated cycle from the late 2015 low for gold.

   However I consider the gold and commodity cycle to be 30 years and therefore see the low in late 2015 as a half cycle correction with the second part of the cycle never as strong as the first as demonstrated by the period 1985-1990 where gold peaked quite early.

   I can remember that period quite well because, as a young civil engineer, I was working in a remote part of Australia looking at a cost benefit analysis for an open cut mine at the now famous “Granites” gold mine owned by Newmont Mining. The company who owned it then were trading at less than 20 cents but eventually went to well over AU$50. The point being that despite gold advancing only 1.75 times off the low the miners advanced significantly during that 5 year period.

   Our aim is to capture the period from the 2015 low, and more particularly from the decline in the USD after 2017, no matter how long it lasts, and maximise our profits. Most miners are yet to fulfil expectations, particularly the small producers and/or explorers but I remain confident that it will happen.

   The high USD and low fuel costs actually helped profit the AUS miners through 2014-2015 yet it was not recognised in the share price and so I bought most of my large portfolio placements during that window of opportunity.

   I hope the theory works and we do get a right translated cycle and eventually the taxi driver tells you what to buy, as that will be a sure sign it is time to SELL!

   Well done Northstar I enjoy your posts.

6. Northstar says:

   May 1, 2018 - 4:20 am at 4:20 am

   Thanks Norvast. I also consider the cycle as approx 30 years in total. Interesting that you say the second phase tends to be weaker than the first. It adds weight to some of my thoughts but I’m still putting the pieces together. The long term support going back to 2011 in gold trends towards $2500 by 2026 and we’re bouncing along close to it now. If we drift sideways as in the 1980’s and 90’s that line will be broken to the downside and we’ll have our answer.