Loading ...Tom DeMark Buy-Signal on Stocks
A Tom DeMark Sequential 13 Buy Signal completed today for the DJIA. The SPX is not far behind at a DeMark 10 count. Eight of the last eleven DJIA buy signals were good (72%).
If taking this buy signal use a close below Monday’s low (SPX 2553.80, ESM8-June e-Mini S & P 2552) as a STOP.
Here’s the list (right below the DJIA daily chart):
DJIA November 2, 2016 just before the Trump election
SPX Sept 29, 2011; two days before 32% rally into April
SPX August 1, 2011; premature
SPX April 24, 2010; two days before 16% rally into November
SPX March 4, 2009: three days before the bear market bottom
DJIA March 3, 2009: four days before the bear market bottom
DJIA January 12, 2009; premature
DJIA November 21, 2008; rallied from 7500 to 9000 in a month
DJIA September 25, 2008; premature
DJIA July 14, 2008; rallied from 11,000 to 11,800 in a month
DJIA July 13, 2006; bottomed next day and rallied from 10,700 to 12,800 by February 2007
SPX April 29, 2005; rallied for three months
DJIA April 21, 2005; the bottom. rallied for next two months
SPX March 12, 2003; end of bear market
DJIA – March 10, 2003; one day before the end of the 2001-2003 bear market
DJIA August 17, 2001; premature
SPX March 23, 2001; three days before 20% rally into June
SPX December 1, 2000; interim low
SPX September 4, 1999; around interim low and 21% rally into March
SPX December 9, 1994; bottom and beginning of rally into 2000.
DJIA June 24, 1994; Bottom. Rallied 8% in next two months
Tom Thornton begs to differ with your DeMark analysis. “SPX is bouncing today however there is now a new downside red Countdown on day 2 of 13. Breaking 2581 on a closing basis will lock in Wave 3.”
Mr. Thornton is a very smart man, probably a LOT smarter than me; I suppose we’ll soon know who’s reading DeMark correctly.
Looks like the futures are deep red…so the buy will be negated.
Sorry BooBooMan this is not a criticism of Tom but SPX needs to break 2532 to host an extended ICL (weekly cycle low) which will more than likely be an YCL (yearly cycle low).
It is likely to happen late this week or early next week.
I think you are on the money BooBooMan, it appears that 02 Apr will be a DCL (daily cycle low) and we have left the ICL behind us on 09 Feb.
I am showing some weakness early next week around 09-11 Apr before a strong rebound.
Thanks for the post!
That’s interesting. Thanks. As I commented before, these things probably won’t work if the stock market is entering bear territory. Time will tell I guess.
Question BB man: Are you running countdowns and sequentials on a trade station or metastock platform? For years I ran DeMark add-ons in metastock, but I could never get them to sink up with the bloomberg certified addition. The math was pretty heavy for my little computer. I would be interested if you have an add-on to metastock or tradestation that you think works.
They are run on Trade Station. BTW, the TDM Sequential 13 Buy has NOT yet been negated. Nowhere (as yet) has Monday’s low (DJIA 23,344.52, SPX 2,533.80, ESM8 2,552) been violated, and we’ve certainly not CLOSED below same.
In the last forty years there have only been five significant failures once the strict Sequential 13 Buy Countdown was complete in the Dow (bar 8 versus 5 in the Countdown is lower and the first 6 days of the Sequential Setup cannot all be lower closes); 1981, 1990, 2001, 2008 and 2009. The common factors were the lack of upside follow through as determined by a price flip (closing above four bars earlier) and then making a higher high. In the present case, the flip is in place. A DJIA high greater than 24,044 would look good; I think we need a close above 24,315 to clearly confirm the reversal.
Frankly, your analysis seems very credible to me. I would bet we see a significant upthrust in the near future. But my question remains. Do you think the trade station add ons emulate the bloomberg version with precision???? My metastock add ons were lacking.
I use MetaStock 11 with local data as I HATE not being able to edit their internet data. I only use four MetaStock expert indicators together with three add-ons.
I believe DeMark indicators are subscription only. Those used here to generate this signal are proprietary (a friend wrote them himself for Tradestation using the form outlined in DeMark’s books “The New Science of Technical Analysis” and “New Market Timing Techniques”).