Loading ...God Forsaken Gold Market
Just got an email from a fed up long time goldophile.
Completely disheartened and giving up.
He sold all gold related portfolio.
He will not be back…ever.
I completely understand.
This sector is very emotional and is not for everyone.
It is tough to make rational decisions.
anybody else on the verge ?
I sense despair !
Personally I am FLAT ( except for some PHYS) …I have even sold some of that.
However I am still waiting for a sign to get back in for the “moonshot”
The miners have been in a bear market for the last 23 years:
https://www.stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24XAU%3A%24GOLD&p=M&st=1984-01-01&en=today&id=p12502662627&a=562515358&listNum=261
Can’t last forever but equally can continue to drag out for a while until there is clear resolution.
I still think this chart is a bullish falling wedge. If that is the case, the target for XAUGR is 0.390.
Pathetic is too kind a word for this chart.
Agree. Gold rocketed from 11 years and even then the miners could keep up with the growth, much less rally.
The whole “buy miners as a leveraged play on gold appreciation” is horse$hit in terms of the majors.
A true NEVER ENDING BEAR!
That’s a bullish sign. The hui bottomed 2 years ago at about 100. Its up 70% since then. The cycles are rising into 2026, so why would you sell ?
I also did think it bottomed in january 2016……but after more than one and a half year of going nowhere I have lost the faith.
been licking some wounds too and thinning the heard, some just too far gone and no choice but to hold them now. Gold does a fine job at luring me back in tho, this or drugs I guess…
Drugs !
🙂
Maybe extreme bearishness is not bullish after all. Maybe gold just sucks.
“Maybe gold just sucks” good point. After all digital illusions of wealth and soooo… much better! Could it be the paper money gods managing our perceptions?
Marcus, Thank you for your post, but, anything priced at $1300 per ounce does not “suck”. It is the suckee. LOL
Come on guys. Gold bottomed at $1050. Now it’s nearly $1350. I don’t see a problem.
Good Point..BUT the problem is the lackluster action in the miners even on good days.
In order to survive a lackluster gold mining market, a good strategy is to focus on producers. There are many cheap producers trading at P/CF of 3-5 and cash flow yields of 10-15%. Once we go to gold 1400-1500$ yields will be 15% to 20%. Of course these stocks will never go up 10-15 times in value like some explorers could, but at least they will not go bankrupt neither.
Gold has a purpose IMO that purpose is to protect wealth outside of the monetary system. The recent decline in the $US and the rise of value of $Gold ($US) over the last 15 months is a true testament to this (what have the miners done?). The people in Venezuela who invested in physical in the past are most likely glad they did as well. To try and extend the abilities of physical Gold onto paper backed instruments IMO is questionable in theory. What has Euro Gold done in the last 15 months in relation to the EURO/USD? Has the purchasing power of the Euro been protected by physical Gold over the last 15 months?
IMO expectations of the PM’s based on the actions of $Gold has lately been proving to be testing past relationship(s) theories. The actions of the $USD Index likewise has tested the ability of projecting Gold’s characteristics onto paper.
What I am indifferent about is paper. IMO the only use for paper is to trade it for profit. What you do with those profits is your business.
IMO trade paper when profitable opportunities present themselves just my .02
To me gold is just something to trade. I’m long or I’m short. I stay out when it’s a weak trend. I decided that I would never screw around with physical coins, it’s not worth the hassle. I never hold on to any gold vehicle that was contrary to trend. I’d rather miss out on 10-15% rather than losing 10-15%. Life’s too short to always feel like I’m going to miss out.
Personal opinion wise I think gold has lost its chance in 2016 to at least double topped with 2012. It should have. It’s been underperforming ever since. I see no reason why it won’t go back below $1000 in a rising interest rate environment. I know I might be wrong, but that’s why I trade with charts and not opinions.
Well said.
A means to an end. It’s a trade nothing more.
Thanks T -Bone
Yes, Tbone, the goal is to make money…anything else, is a waste of time…
‘no reason why gold won’t go back below $1000’. Dollar cycle ? gold cycle ?