The divergence we are currently enduring between gold and the miners has generally signaled only one thing and that is that the miners are sick and need to puke. The current situation looks a lot like 1985 where Gold maintained a nice uptrend but the miners could never get traction and continued to slide for months on end. When the bull is healthy there’s very little divergence between the two.

You can see here in the XAU/Gold/USD chart from 1985 how lethargic the miners were in what appeared to be perfect conditions.
Dollar Tanking-Check
Gold uptrend-Check
Miners-shitting the bed

This chart is the 1985 XAU analog overlay on today’s chart. While not perfect as it has an inversion or two it fits nicely. I was actually amazed at how it fit with the fibonacci dates of interest I have coming up. That looks something like this-
April 16th-low
May 1st-high
June 19th-the yearly high

I have been looking at everything through the lens that it would tie into this next chart. It is a monthly Fibonacci count that I put together a couple years ago.Which if gold is long term bullish it would probably mean declining commodities in the second half of the year. Or on the flip side if Gold bullishly rose into this time zone I would be nervous for the long term prospects. 50 years of time is culminating at the beginning of 2019. Even for people that think Fibonacci is bullshit have to at least appreciate the beauty of the synchronicity. Maybe beautiful things unfold from that time.

Obviously I hope that the 1985 correlation is temporary and that this is the final shake out before a sustained bull market. Beyond pure speculation at this point but I like the dream.

This last bit of speculative evidence that commodities could be heading down after June is the Oil chart I’ve shown before. It shows how Oil follows a nice 10 year schedule of major lows or wave 2 secondary lows bottoming in years that end in 8. Well, here we are. Oil COT is still ridiculous. Quandl data is currently missing on tradingview or I’d show the historical imbalance in that number.

I was hoping to see gold at 1433 and gdx at 31 by June but obviously not sure if it gets that high. Analog shows more of a 25-26 PO.
Thanks for checking out my current stream of consciousness. Just something to keep in mind going into a June rally.
I should mention that this certainly isn’t a perfect theory and June could be a major low but I’m currently leaning for a high but will adjust if needed.
Apologies for lengthy post.