Loading ...Sam’s EW on gold
FYI … this is tied to his long term wave count for the dollar.
Short term, he sees — as does my work — a short term PM recovery as the dollar completes its (initial) decline.
Dollar rally into spring, as PMs get pummeled some more.
Then the big rally gets underway, as the dollar craters again, and the everything bubble goes into blow off mode this summer, fall and winter.
Interesting. That ties in with my post below, predicting a dollar low of around 65 as TRIX bottoms early next year. I think that would be a good time to take money off the table and see how things develop.
Thanks pedro, isn’t that the count that danerick has stuck with for quite a while now? Interestingly enough I have major Fibonacci time dominos bottlenecking in February 2019. This count would coincide with the puzzle assembly.
Thanks for chiming in.
Haven’t seen Dan post a gold update in a while, but a large number of EW folks are on the same page with this count (putting aside the high degree III and IV labels). [Avi, notably, is not in this camp.] Most caught the ED into the 2015 low. Dan and several others were early in calling the ensuing rise as the early part of a B wave. The b within the B has been what, for obvious reasons now after the fact, chewed up most efforts to call the pattern or trade it. I suspected a triangle fairly early on in 2017 (and posted those views here), but they are still no fun to navigate.
Thanks, I suspected a triangle as well…especially in miners just due to the vertical nature of the initial move. I have seen Avi address the possibility but he generally seems to not give it much credence. He seems to want to ride his call until the numbers say he can’t…and if he’s right that affords him articles worth of sub pub. Which I guess he can afford to do because he will know relatively quickly if he’s wrong and clear the decks. He won’t ride it down like many bugs will. What’s funny is that I think he has changed his primary dollar count to essentially this. Dollar B bottom 72-75 and then C up 110. He hates correlation discussion…to a fault sometimes.
IYO what is the price where this C wave becomes dead?….IMO from a chartology perspective it’s at around $2300 depending upon time of arrival.
B waves can do anything, technically. eg, many have SPX in a CORRECTIVE B wave off 666. Yes, I find that strange.
As for gold, I’d be skeptical of this call above 1923, and even 1600. The whole underlying premise of the pattern is “save the dollar” and banking system, versus hyperinflation. And zig zags are the typical 4th waves so lower highs.
Could be talking my book here.
Smart people see it differently.
That Green C is a Bummer !
I like all the rest of it though
Implies keep your PM powder dry until say June
Thanks for the post. For some crazy reason I have St. Joseph’s Day as a low-March 19th.