Goldtent TA Paradise

Gold The Ultimate Iron Lady

1. Fullgoldcrown says:

   February 6, 2018 - 11:20 pm at 11:20 pm

   Oy Vey…

   I actually have met Stewart Thompson….nice guy but ….this is pretty outlandish…He’s a permabull IMO

   • Music Man says:

     February 6, 2018 - 11:35 pm at 11:35 pm

     He does make some good points (and Northstar also suggests the possibility of a high number too), so while his numbers are much beyond that which would make me very happy, his projections, taking into the consideration that inflation might also be much higher than most expect, might not be unreasonable.
     Thanks for the comment.

2. NickG says:

   February 6, 2018 - 11:25 pm at 11:25 pm

   I love this guy’s work. I look for his articles on goldseek. I have to admit, until I saw that number earlier today I thought he was quite rational and smart. I thought the number must have been a typo. Owell. Funny number aside i still like his analysis.

   • Music Man says:

     February 6, 2018 - 11:41 pm at 11:41 pm

     Thanks, Nick.
     It wasn’t that long ago that gold went from $190 to $1900.

     • BooBooMan says:

       February 7, 2018 - 4:09 pm at 4:09 pm

       The absolute low in the 1980-2001 Bear Market was $253.20 in July 1999.

       The most recent high came at $1,923.70in early September 2011, and represented a 7.6 times multiple in the gold price from its 1999 low.

       • Music Man says:

         February 7, 2018 - 4:26 pm at 4:26 pm

         Thank you for the correction. It actually was, however, in the $Thirties when Americans weren’t permitted to own it. I suppose, if you consider that, $15000 is not so crazy.

         • BooBooMan says:

           February 7, 2018 - 9:13 pm at 9:13 pm

           You’re right, but the price was “fixed” through suppression (and collusion with foreign help)for 41 years. This piece by Daniel Oliver of Myrmikan Research is well worth pondering:

           “Roosevelt made holding gold a felony for Americans, but foreigners were able to deliver gold to the Fed to get $35 dollars (instead of $20 pre-devaluation) to buy assets that had fallen 90% during the market crash. Gold flooded in. The first big dip was caused by the Federal Reserve’s buying bonds to finance World War II, diluting the gold backing of the dollar.
           Deficit spending under Kennedy and Johnson caused the long slide into 1970: foreign governments were still permitted to redeem dollars for gold, and many did, leaving behind the government bonds. Rates then shot up from 4% to 20%, which crushed the value of the bonds. Gold neither entered nor left the vault after 1970, but as the market devalued the bonds, so it also devalued the dollar,
           leaving gold as the primary asset behind the dollar.

           In 1969, gold at $35/oz backed the Fed’s liabilities by 10%—by 1980, gold peaked at $875, backing the Fed’s liabilities by an absurd 133%. From the peak in 1980, interest rates have fallen steadily, boosting the value of bonds held by the Federal Reserve and the dollar, to gold’s detriment. At the current gold price of $1260/oz, gold backs the Fed’s liabilities by only 7.4%

           To return to a 28% backing (the average since 1971) would require gold to trade at $4,700/oz.
           To match the peak in 1980, gold would have to trade at $22,600/oz. That is how crazy a
           gold bull market can get, and that’s how crazy it will get once interest rates start rising”.

           So I suppose you’ve got a point: it CAN get crazy enough to push the gold mining stocks to absurdity.