I wanted to take the chance to expose this pullback in commodities as nothing more than a seasonal operation right before the early February FOMC statement. All commodities (as well as the major 4 equity indices) have major/minor bottoms right around the last few days of January.

Here is the proof:

Here is the last 10 years of gold.

4HR Gold Spot

2HR Gold Spot

4HR DXY (Strong downside momentum and wayyyy under Bollingers. Getting overbought actually)

1HR DXY (It was nearly certain that today we would fill the Thursday gap, we did). Hanging around weekly CAM R3 now. The bottom of DXY is that thick red line, Year CAM S3)

When I see naysayers immediately jump onto the bear train before gold seasonality is even over after the strongest start in a decade… I question it (referring to massive zerohedge (ugh) and seeking alpha (double ugh) articles out there calling the top). Every single $10-20 pullback since December 14 has been met with, “Gold is going down guys! It’s over!”. Rarely has the gold seasonal trade ever ended before February 1.

Cameron