Loading ...Something is Screwy with the HUI
I wish I could share the optimistic PM outlook with many of you great PM Analysts.
BUT
In my experience the Gold Stocks Always lead ….up and down.
Look at this chart….does anybody see another analogous period where Gold Stocks were in a general down trend while Gold was in an uptrend ?
Something is not right here.
I hope I am just being overly cautious….as there are so many good Bull charts in Gold being presented .
Then there is the HUI:GOLD Ratio …Uninspiring to say the least
A hell of a lot of money has gone into cyrptocurrencies over the last year. At least some of that would probably have gone into the miners if they didn’t exist,
especially the juniors.
Also, a significant chunk of all the ‘retail’ money that has gone into cyrpto’s probably ain’t ever coming back out again.
I’m with you Fully – scared as hell. Sold some of my weaker holdings today, and took a bit of profit where it seemed fitting.
It seems, in a way, the miners could make a run at the December 2015 lows. If so, that’s a drop of 50% from here. Hope I’m wrong.
Yes, it would be hard to be bullish if you only use that ratio. But if you only used that ratio you would have sold miners in 2003 when the ratio peaked and gold was 400. The ratio has been in a bear market since 1968.
Gold is doing what it should as money It’s fairly valued at the moment and has been since the third week of Dec IMO. Copper and Silver are the only other metals I follow and IMO Copper is lagging the drop in the $US. The SGR has been flat. I pay particular attention to the daily change in the $USD % and if the commodities don’t equal the percent drop in the $US as an increase in commodity price then I consider them to have gone down. I also watch the XAU/EUR and it topped Jan 7, and is now sideways. I expect sideways until there is a change in the XAU/EUR. Put the above mentioned together does not equal a Bull market IMO. Wealth preservation for those bias to the $US but certainly not bullish for those in other Fiat. Lowered my PM holdings to 5% keeping only large cap showing positive price action, profitability and sound management since Dec 16 . Moderately bias $Silver and waiting for a turn in $Copper. I did keep this one ill performing stock with a property in Australia…..The last month has been a wealth of information to watch which PM’s performed and PM’s that looked sick during such a large currency move in the $US. I expect when the eventual Gold Bull shows itself the performance of the leading PM’s will be exponential to the lagger PM’s.
I hear you Fully. Let’s see what next week brings.
isn’t GLD the driver here, bullion purchases by banks and people first , Like lithium getting up on spot as demand driven then the stocks follow.
In the PM sector its always the miners moving before or at least STRONGER than the metals….virtually always
I used to be surprised by that….How do Miners speculators know gold is about to make a move…but they do !
looking like out of whack about 9 months, gold up on currency drop and perhaps year end sales not showing up on the books yet, way outta whack here with all indicators on gold lined up. Scanned td and bmo mutual fund performance lists. asia,china, dow tele, bio all up 15-30% range and metals in the neg. Obviously the sheeple will buy the funds with the high returns for now, probably going to be this way until they snap and turn down and gold rises which will ultimately have to raise our holding. Trump should have added gold & silver stocks to his shithole list 🙂
The hui went ka-plu-y.
Good chart, Fully. Miners sagging badly compared to the metals. When the bull runs miners have 4X and 5X leverage to GOLD. We have seen that many times.
I think the miners have just been very beaten down in the last year. Remember that article of GDXJ manipulation when the VanEck managers planned on swapping in mid-caps for the small-caps? Yeah hedgies shorted the hell out of that all the way to the end of 2017.
I talk about this with my Dad often. We have noticed that there is an extreme amount of manipulation in GDX to push the price down each Friday in order to allow call options to expire worthless. This can’t last forever, and I expect there to be the normal burst of price starting Feb 1 just like every year after the FOMC decision Wednesday. If you look at the seasonal profile we usually pick up in volume once that occurs… February is about the 2nd strongest month of the year for gold next to January.
https://commodityseasonality.com/metals/
Cheers,
Cameron