Loading ...Cyclical Mania….
OK…lets face it….we are loosing faith , we are not so sure any more
….Is Gold just a Forgotten Barbaric Market ?
Was 2016 just a flash in the Pan ?
Is Gold destined to meander in price ….sideways for decades to come ( think 1980s and 1990s)
Only fit for fringe…end of the world creeps who continue to believe the financial world as we know it will
collapse any day.
Of course this has to happen someday…..right ?
Ya well….how long can you wait for this Big Bang ?
I think too many of us put all our eggs in the Gold Basket…and miss the other opportunities in the market.
I know I did…now I’m “diversified”…which means I’m investing in other stuff that comes from the ground too.
🙂
Anyhow….this chart sums it up for me…Wild Exuberance followed soon after by Grinding Indifference.
Then On to the next Mania.
IF this leg will be like that that started in january 2016 (it would be like a dream come true!!!)the top will be reach around july,with a probable correction around april.
Anyway it would be too good to be true…so cross our fingers!
I don’t think it’s forgotten. The timing for PMs hasn’t been right, until now. PMs are mostly inflation investments, and much less frequently safe haven investments. Even though the markets have been doing fine, the inflation hasn’t been there – until this year. This year, the animal spirits have been released in the markets, the economic indicators are great, people are working and shopping, oil prices have soared, and the 10yr US Treasury has now breached an important yield level of 2.60%.
Pair that with sentiment in the PM space which is pretty much bottom of the barrel (except for a minority of investors like us on goldtent who have been watching PMs and other indicators like hawks).
I think the Risk/Reward on gold & silver miners right now is better than anything else in the market – yup, ANYTHING else. You can buy SIL today with a stop loss at $29(less than 15% below), and if silver completes the inverse head & shoulder pattern showing on the monthly chart, this miner ETF could rocket to $80/share($33 current). So your risk/reward there is $4 loss/$46 gain, pretty dang good and I can’t find anything else with that attractive of a risk level.
You are correct Nick, plus I think it is important to be on the correct side of the larger cycles, namely the 18-22 credit cycle for stocks, the 30 year cycle for gold & commodities, and the 15 year cycle for the USD.
My expectation is for stocks to top and commence a mid-cycle correction in Q4 2019 but there are plenty of gains between now & then, and exponential gains after the slow-down, through to 2026.
Gold & commodities completed their mid-cycle correction in late 2015 and while the gains since then have been good they should increase dramatically through to 2024.
The USD topped out in early 2017 and should now move lower for 7.5 to 8 years giving gold and commodities the tail-wind they need for significant advances.
So I agree that while the risk/reward back in late 2014-late 2015 was better it is still excellent for PM’s and other commodities today.
May even save Australian “again” during the credit cycle slow-down in 2019-2020!
Also, I remember the CEO of Franco-Nevada did an interview a few months back. He talked about how there has been no capital investment and no big discoveries in the industry in the last 10 years, whereas there used to be 1-2 big discoveries per year. So if/when demand picks up it’ll be tough to find the supply to meet it.
Let’s see what a US government shutdown brings!
Gold is money Fully.
Unless people in the street start too actually buy physical, prices will rise and fall with the $USD Index or the $US which ever your view. The 2016 Bull IMO was Europeans buying physical. Most Americans are broke so I don’t expect physical demand from the US too increase. Europeans, Asians, Russians and Indians are the current buyers of physical. Americans buy paper for the most part. Paper the last time I checked is not worth much more than paper.
Buy and sell like the paper it is, because that’s all it is unless it’s .9999 in the palm of your hand. just my .02
Fully, I couldn’t agree more, diversification to other high fliers is the way to go. Think lithium, pot, cryptos, robots, AI and even coal. There’s plenty of other stuff going up out there, just need to look around and find it. I know this is a gold site, but maybe a few more posts can be devoted to what each of you think is the “next big thing”.
Like Hashgraph?
How to play that ? Anybody ?
Gold’s value in the market is that you don’t have to worry about a counter party.
With the punch bowl still CLEARLY spiked, no one is worrying about collateral yet.
China is minting M2 at 30% pa. US, ECB, Japan are all running 10-15% plus.
Wait til these figures get cut in half or more. Maybe then ….
I would agree PD we are in the midst of a kinda friendly currency war at the moment IMO. China pushing up rates with there telegraph not gonna buy T Bill & Bond leak and the ECB about to raise rates? The dollar is beginning what could be a full on onslaught, the FED has lost control. Is it good for Gold? If you don’t own any what does it matter?
If you own paper in US denomination how low can it go? FYI the Venezuelan SM IBVC has had great returns since Dec.
Does any of it matter probably not 350 Million Americans falling out of the wealthy middle class being replaced by 4 Billion with a little extra cash to spend. My bet is on the velocity of money the 4 Billion have to spend. The general public doesn’t seem to even notice pacified with sports, reality TV and smart phones. That’s what Gold is competing against an American public unaware of the true reality of the world outside. Diversification might be a good thing?