Loading ...USD Forecast
Here is a USD post from Dec 13, 2017 forecasting that it’s Intermediate Cycle had topped. The 3rd chart has a price objective (PO) which seems to be playing out. If the normal Daily or Trading Cycle timing band holds, the next TCL/DCL could be 2 weeks away or more…
https://surfcity.co/2017/12/13/usd-update-13/
Also here is a re-post from Dec 29th on the Longer Cycles for Gold and the USD.
https://surfcity.co/2017/12/29/longer-cycles-for-gold-and-the-dollar/
Thanks Surf. Seems to be playing out nicely.
Surf, how do you see the longer term trends in the US dollar? Do you see its continuing to follow the last 47 years of 7.5-8 year up cycles and down cycles?
If so we are due a dollar bear market because the last bear was 2001-2008 and the bull was from 2008-2016 with almost a double bottom test in 2011 so it might extend a bit. The last USD bull lasted about 9 years 1992-2001.
Anyway, do you think credit contraction dynamics might prevent there being a real strong downside to the current or upcoming USD bear cycle that might be expected to last say form 2017-2014 or thereabouts, following the previous cycles since 1971?
I’ll just spell them out Bear 1971-1979, bull 1979-1985 bear 1985-1992, bull 1992-2001 bear 2001-2008 (or 2011 maybe?) bull 2008-2016/2017, bear 2017-2024ish?
Looking at the long ondratieff credit cycle that had its deflation in 1929-1933 and this time maybe in its credit contraction that started around the 2008 financial meltdown, that’s kind of an 80 year event. That could trump (pun intended) the 40-odd years of up and down dollar cycles that we have had since 1971.
I am wondering if the dollar is going to break out of its last 47 years of trading and go sky high, maybe breaking out of the falling wedge that started at the 1985 peak at USDX 160 and going back to that level on some kind of Euro/Pound/Yen meltdown(s).
Alternatively, does the dollar just carry on with its lower lows during its bear cycles series, making lows in 1979, 1992, 2008 and then whatever, 2024 perhaps.
I kind of look at the Euro thing and think it is going to be difficult for the USDX to go below the 2008 low around 70 with the fact that the Eurozone, Japan and also the UK are basket cases really, when you look at them. Who knows what could happen on the Brexit? Hyperinflation for UK first perhaps? Dunno. Any problems in one of these areas could send the dollar soaring.
Even if they hold together I can’t see the dollar falling below 70 in this down-cycle, can you?
What do you guys think?