Goldtent TA Paradise

US Dollar

1. red label says:

   December 16, 2017 - 3:47 am at 3:47 am

   IMO It would appear that the fate of the $US Dollar hangs in the balance of Germany’s hands and ECB not the Trump Tax Bill or the the FED ramblings. Japan & Germany have interest rates at 0% while the FED talks of numerous rate hikes. The $US hardly maintains a range of 93 – 94 that’s weak IMO. Germany can’t even form a government and Euro banks are a mess (that’s weak) at the moment but they are laughing there way to a glorious economic boom due to undervalued EURO relative the $US. Trump flat out called them currency manipulators lol. Well no $hit. You want to see the $US Dollar go to 80 wait till Germany and Japan raise rates, but why raise rates if they don’t have too? Unless there is runaway inflation in Germany I cannot see in the immediate future Japan or Germany raising rates? Just my thoughts but I don’t have a seat at the ECB. Good luck predicting the results of this standoff? It may be a political event that dictates the next move here? As far as honest Abe well that arrangement is all about real estate, location location location. Hardly an economic force in the world anymore the Yen should be declared the first modern Fiat to be DOA.. So which Fiat is the weakest? Somebody tell me I missed something? Maybe if Oil goes on a tear? Bank contagion? SM event?

2. Tbone says:

   December 16, 2017 - 3:39 pm at 3:39 pm

   Yes, I can see the symmetry when the dollar is really stretched out over 10 years. If the stock market stays in a bull market it’s really hard for me to see the dollar fall much even if the rest of the world continues to recover. It’s also very difficult to see oil sustained above $70/bbl. If the stock market corrects or even crashes although the dollar would suffer initially, that would just lead to deflation again which would probably lead us again to a stronger dollar. Europe and Japan have too much debt (like the US), but without a fledgling younger generation.
   So that leaves the emerging markets. They are dependent on weak currencies. They are the future, but I think it’ll be a gradual transformation as they continue to take jobs and industry away from the West and build their middle class. No matter who is right about the $USD, GOVT’s will be sure to inflate and steal our purchasing power.