GDX
Not EW.
Ages ago, back in the summer when bullies were getting lathered up, I questioned their “to the moon” views.
One of the reasons I cited was that one of my key monthly indicators had not completed its visit to OS land.
For this indicator, that meant sub -100. It was coming off a low around -50 at the time. (-200 to +200 range)
In prior notable bottoms like late 2015, it got there. Just as +100 has a tendency to be alert to OB topping prospects.
Well, GDX is now a hair below -100, but still falling. At least half the time (from back and cross testing), this measure should be starting up concurrent with lows forming. So there’s a fly in the ointment. But weeklies are getting pretty close, so it will be time for more vigilance beginning next week. FOMC looks like a potential pivot.
I don’t think Gold is extreme levels OS as seen in Dec 2016 yet relative to the $US. It’s all about the $USD index everybody quotes the value of spot without referencing the $US value? The value of Gold is currently a measure of the purchasing power of the $US IMO. IMO Gold is Less OS tonite (-$21 US) than Gold was OB Sept 6, 2017. Nothing says Gold needs to be at any certain level of bought/sold before a market makes a turn that’s the gamble and the reason I’m studying chartology.
So I guess I’m in agreement with you without graphing your post. I have a harder time determining a Bottom than a Top I’d be interested in your methods of timing market bottoms. I follow your posts EW is out of my realm at the moment tho.
One thing I’m noticing on the performance charts is $Silver & GDX as showing a closer correlation more so than $Gold & GDX? I see a lot of posts noting the lack of participation/frustration of the GDX relative $Gold, $Silver is the issue IMO.
My target for this cyclical low is approx $1200 gold in the next 2 weeks.