Loading ...Winter of 87?
I can’t remember who first suggested that we might be reliving the 80’s and not the 70’s with respect to PM’s and the Miners. But it stuck with me. All this talk of industrial metals specifically Copper and Nickel starting a new Bull with a lack of participation of the PM miners. Not being a chart guy more of a Math individual I like ratio’s. Copper one of the best indicators of economic activity vs. Gold the ultimate gauge of banking confidence. The similarities screams to me 1987?
Here’s my crude charts lol.
Hi Red
To make your charts expandable you need to do this …one time
https://goldtadise.com/?p=357408
If you cant figure it out…email me your password and I will do it for you
PS…I fixed thse ones but you need to do the above before posting the next chart
PS….Great work an insight Red Label
I have been feeling this is like the 80s after that Parabolic Run in Gold into 1980.. came 20 years in the wilderness
So why not after the parabolic run into 2011 ?
I certainly hope this time is different
But that first chart sure gives some perspective
I just looked it up the stock market crashed Oct. 19, 1987. I’m not predicting anything for Oct 19 just thought I’d throw that in the mix now that I started the discussion. Well $hit!
hardly crude, kiss,
I tend to focus narrow then expand with trepidation.
Was national debt $20t+ in the ’80s as well as avg debt:gdp of sovereign nations over 100%? If we’re gonna compare lets compare everything 🙂
I want to be a Gold Bull too Nick. Re the 21.9 Trillion debt that is just the US portion. The global debt it’s much larger than that. I’m not sure what too make of it just graphed it today and now I’m scratching my head? I’d love to hear what you think and where you think PM miners are heading. I’m nearly 80% in PM’s at the moment so yeah I’m a nervous Bull lol.
That was partially directed at fully’s response of possibly now going into another 20yr lull in prices after the parabolic spike in 2011, as is what happened in the 80s. I wanted to point out that the debt levels were different then, and that’s why in my opinion it wont play out that way now.
What do i think will happen? Everyone is incredibly underexposed to PMs and overexposed to the bubble market. The fed MUST start inflating away in about 3-4yr to control the debt levels. If their neutral rate is 2.5% and they bring inflation to 5% to negate the effect of 2.5% on the national debt, well then real rates are negative (2.5 – 5) and PMs get rocket fuelled higher. Keep stackin.
VERY creative thinking on the CU to AU ellipse charting!
Not sure about any link to ’87 (currency and rates turmoil set that off)
This smacks of real activity along Silk Road 2 and Complacency re the PetroDollar for now.
We are looking at 2 different economies for sure both plotting out similar paths? Like I said I’m still scratching my head at the moment. If I do remember interest rates were just starting to climb again near that time after a 7 year decline. Investing wasn’t really my priority back in 87 lol did drink a lot of beer that year tho. Might be of no relevance just thought I’d throw it out there and see what the TA’s had to say. I’m going to look at the big economic picture from back then see if there are any similarities?
Ì posted something similar quite a while back, then this one more recently https://goldtadise.com/?author_name=northstar&paged=7
So what do you make of the ratio between Cu and Au? No currency exchanges to muddy the water just plain and simple Global Supply/Demand vs Global Supply/Demand. Is this Winter 1987 again in your opinion?
Thanks Northstar
I’ll be taking some time looking at the charts again later next week. Hope to post some updates then 🙂