Loading ...Gold Elliott Wave count and COT data says…
Here is the latest count on gold from my EW software. It looks like the corrective move starting in Dec15/Jan16 is now done. The pattern count is high and that boosts the reliability of the count.
Below is the latest COT data:
Based on this data, I see it as quite unlikely that we will see the PM sector making any kind of new highs anytime soon. I see a period of 2-6 months in which the general trend is down.
Hi Ken. Thanks for posting.
If you’ve followed my EW posts, you know I’m in full agreement on your conclusion.
Down into Dec at least, possibly into spring.
I don’t concur on your software’s internal count however; indeed I can’t really follow it. Not the Dec 15 low, nor the purported ABC (or WXY) correction. Particularly the C leg with a triangle (ABCDE) finish. Triangles are B or 4th waves only.
In any event, your overall view is what matters, and it fits well with my view on UUP, as shared by TOTM here —
https://t.co/HHufMB4XCu
Thanks Pedro. It is not well known, but a triangle may occur as the final wave in a corrective pattern (“Elliott Wave Principle” by Frost and Pretcher, 20th Anniversary edition, page 51). It is rare, but you have to admit that is one odd pattern. Anyway, as you said, it is only a small wave and we agree on the larger count. Thanks for the input.
Thank you Dr Gloom and Dr Doom
Sorry – it’s the contrarian in me. 😉
So who is WHO and who is WHOM ??
And Ken … thanks for the tip re p51. Unfortunately, I don’t have that edition handy. And I have doubts about whether that applies here, if you are referring to a complex (triple) correction involving a zig zag, any three, and then a triangle to end the corrective wave. I don’t see that pattern clearly applying here. Black A isn’t a zig zag; black B doesn’t appear to be a three; and black C if its the triangle leg in total, belongs placed not at red A but at the red E end. No matter, as we’re on the same page otherwise.
Thanks Ken. The other count I’ve seen has gold in a large contracting triangle where the current downleg would be a D wave targeting around 110. Then a bounce to E before the final crushing capitulation. I am still playing a bounce here because the USD should sell off over the next couple of weeks but after that I’m long dollar,short bonds,short emerging markets etc.
“but after that I’m long dollar,short bonds,short emerging markets etc.”
Throw in short REITs, Utes as well.
Yup. Either E up to complete the tri, then a large C down in 5.
Or 5 has started, and 2 up is next.
Doomer out.