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Not my ewave count but shows possible top here. Idea would be enforced by breakdown of USD/JPY wedge as posted by NickG below.
On the 5 minute chart TZA could be in wave 3 of 1 so if a 5 wave move forms and a 3 wave retracement follows you have a good entry point.
There are certainly times when you let someone else work the count.
This is one of them.
Then again, I ALWAYS let someone else take the first stab at doing a count.
(And give them proper credit too.)
Right now, on IWM/RUT, my work (no EW involved) still has AT LEAST a large corrective fourth wave to go, then a final 5 up. AT LEAST. That means, to me, that any IWM declines (TZA up moves) will be in corrective patterns … which could include say a 5-3-5 zig zag … ie, that might start out looking plenty impulsive. You never find out for certain until its too late to capitalize on it, or get trapped expecting another leg that doesn’t show.
Could be wrong, but I think this pig holds up into 2018. My hunch — it dies on passage of a tax plan. That marks the end of the lipstick.
Yes it could be a tricky short and I would probably overtrade it. If we get a spike low on the dollar here to around 90 to finish the move then I will look at shorting FXI and EWZ against the rising $. Here is a link to USD/JPY EW using all data
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-dktD0VZpAI
By implication USD/JPY should exceed 160 to complete primary 4 (you would get a similar target using inverse H&S) so that would coincide with your C of IV for gold timing wise I imagine
You might find this interesting
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-dktD0VZpAI
By implication primary IV at say 160+ would tie in with your C of IV on gold I think