Currencies
Lets set the Dollar Index Aside for now…it has had little co relation with Gold for this year at least and the DX is just a discussion about the Dollar or the Euro…which is the currency of the day ?
However the Yen ( vs the Dollar) is Highly co related to the Gold Chart…has been since 2007 just before the Great Financial Crisis….I have never heard a definitive answer as to why this is but it IS !
I have actually never seen a Long term Yen Monthly charts that I can remember…so here it is
Remember when japan was the leading economy…They went from third world like status Yen 40 to world leaders ( due to their Manufacturing Boom)….From this chart I guess that began in 1985 and it all ended in 1995….at 130
quite a move for a currency ! At that time gold didn’t give a rats asp about the yen.
I have no clue why the Yen then rallied to a new ATH in 2011 BUT as it did it took Gold with it.
A strong yen is death to the Japanese economy which depends on manufacturing ….so we had The Japanese CB printing like crazy ….but then it was said they just gave up and stopped their jawboning for a weaker yen and their trillions of printing.
I don’t really understand these currency movements of course…all above my simple mind…BUT does this Chart look Bullish or Bearish…?
And WHY oh Why should there be a strengthening Yen when all we hear is Japan’s Economy and Demographics are a dead man walking.
How does the infamous yen carry trade facto in to this ?
Anyhow…IF Gold and the yen are the thing…then why are we bullish on gold in the face of this H and S Pending .
Thanks.
Coz we have the YEN carry trade unwinding? US not going to raise rates in the foreseeable future, RBA (Australia) had been sitting tight on 1.5% since last year. Not to mention US stocks are already toppish…wouldn’t that be nice to repatriate some $YEN home?
Dunno. You tell me.
Once you start looking at currency pairs or ratios, you are really comparing two elements at different stages of decay, both on their individual journey to a value of zero. Their relationship to each other and to gold will vary as time passes, because of natural factors, but also politics and intervention (money printing for example). Unless you know every factor involved and a crystal ball, you cant hope to draw any reliable conclusion about the best to medium term prospects for PM’s. All you know for sure is that one day (probably after we’re all gone), the paper will be reduced to zero. In the meantime, and as long as the paper ‘survived, the regular business cycle, commodity cycle and currency cycles will continue, with individual currencies ‘gaining and losing at various unknown points.
*short to medium term*