Loading ...For Ken S – More On My $9000 Target
Ken quite rightly asked me how my $9000 gold road map stacks up if you look much further back. I’ve posted this chart before, or at least one very similar. This is how I see it going back to the 1970’s, when we came off the gold standard. I view this as the second big bull market in a perpetual, ongoing, parabolic gold bull. Each successive bull will take us to a new order of magnitude. In the 1970′ s it was tens of dollars, in the 1980’s it was hundreds of dollars. Then came the long, protracted trading range. Now we have the next part of the bull, so far mirroring the first. We have just made it into the thousands of dollars, and by the end of this bull we will be close to adding another zero ($10,000). That’s the definition of exponential, so it’s not exactly surprising.
Points to note:
1) The gold cycle produces very marked, reliable lows in gold. We just had one.
2) Part 1 in the first bull move ended where I put the purple number 1. This is where we are once again.
3) You can see visually that this first bull move contains very similar sub-structures to our most recent one.
4) We’re expecting a breakout and move to a new point 2, as per the previous purple point 2. This time the target is around $9000
yowzza, nice stuff NS
Lol I would be in heaven if this happened. I will settle for Pedro’s $1400 to start with but love this NS. 🙂
Very nice sir. I hope you are right!
Just noticed, if this chart is our roadmap, that it will be about 20 years until we start moving up again?
Heh, not if it’s 1976-77 ;). I don’t believe the 70’s reset in PM value fully materialize after the first attempt at a monetary crisis ‘solution’ (petrodollar devaluation). Similarly, the QE solutions since 2009 are likely to have the same result.
More detail on the first ‘solution’:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petrodollar_recycling
“The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimated that the foreign debts of 100 oil-importing developing countries increased by 150% between 1973 and 1977, complicated further by a worldwide shift to floating exchange rates. Johan Witteveen, the Managing Director of the IMF, said in 1974: “The international monetary system is facing its most difficult period since the 1930s.”[10] The IMF administered a new lending program during 1974–1976 called the Oil Facility. Funded by oil-exporting nations and other lenders, it was available to nations suffering from acute problems with their balance of trade due to the rise in oil prices, notably including Italy and the UK as well as dozens of developing countries.[11]” ……. The 1973 oil crisis had created a vast dollar shortage in these countries; however, they still needed to finance their imports of oil and machinery. In early 1977, when Turkey stopped heating its prime minister’s office, opposition leader Suleyman Demirel famously described the shortage as: “Turkey is in need of 70 cents.”[14] As political journalist William Greider summarized the situation: “Banks collected the deposits of revenue-rich OPEC governments and lent the money to developing nations so they could avoid bankruptcy.”[15] In subsequent decades, many of these developing nations found their accumulated debts to be unpayably large, concluding that it was a form of neocolonialism from which debt relief was the only escape.[16]
We’re moving into phase 2, as before, so we move up now, not in 20 years Ken !
Looks to me like the analog year that is equivalent to this year is 2004. Just finished the consolidation of the huge run up. The next big rally started almost 20 years later (2003).
Sorry -meant 1984 as the analog year, not 2004.
Crikey Ken had me worried for a minute! 20 years, I will be well past it!
KEN–love your work but can u give us some guesstimate targets for the next month–6 months–a year–if so, much appreciatyed
Great stuff!
Not sure on the price, but we should see a peak in this 15 year $Gold super cycle around 2026.
That is also the fifth K wave peak in 2026.
This has been a thesis of mine for some time now.
Try a similar cycle analysis using $AUD:$USD
Thanks Spock. I’m somewhat uncertain about the price target too. This chart and others I’ve worked on indicate $8000-$9000. I can understand people being sceptical, hell, I’m sceptical ! Only time will tell I guess.