Loading ...CHF/USD – Evidence For A Gold Bull
Thanks to Optional for reminding me. I first posted this in May, just after the breakout. It’s looking like the breakout is the real deal. If so, we may have another piece of evidence supporting the gold bull thesis. I’ll put the cycle chart up again (apologies for not being able to credit the original poster, I forgot who it was). It may seem bleak at the moment, and we may even drop another $60 dollars or so, but I really do think that there is a lot of chart evidence to say that we could be getting close to a really big and meaningful move in the PM markets. If the bottom rail of the very long term triangle/pennant gives way, all bets are off. Unless that happens, we’re on course for an amazing opportunity.
Thanks again Northstar.
Brilliant chart that second one that defines very clearly the cyclical nature of commodities in particularly gold.
Based on the past we should have 7.5 to 8 years of upside until we hit the top line.
Post on a regular basis – it will eventually sink in to members.
Thanks Norvast. I will happily switch to bearish if the very long term support on the gold bull pennant gives way. As long as that holds, the charts are telling me the next big move will be up. Shorter term a drop of about $60 In gold is possible.
I have re-drawn those charts on a weekly and daily basis and while the Swiss Franc is getting a little overbought and may re-test the upper pennant trend line that would not necessarily mean that the pattern is broken.
It may be interesting to go back to 2003 and see whether there was a back-test of the top pennant line.
Where you draw that trend line is open to interpretation but now the advances since early this year have been so strong I think it is clearly broken the down trend line.
From my point of view I need supporting evidence for the commodity bull case, and I normally find that in the AUD (a great proxy for the commodities), the fall in the USD, and my understanding of the greater 30 year cycle which hosted a half cycle correction in 2015 (similar to 1985).
It is always tricky in the early stages of the advance as your beliefs get tested.
The AUD has hosted an ICL and now in the second daily cycle of a new weekly cycle, and looking very strong.
RIO.AX always leads and it is showing significant advances.
The AUD was initially strong in the last weekly cycle but failed and was left translated so I am thinking this weekly cycle may be right translated which will be good for gold and other commodities.
Once again thanks for your charts.