Loading ...The Dollar is Doomed
Right ?
It sure feels that way right now.
I mean we had a strong breakout to new highs with the Trump Rally
Then reality set in that The Prez of the United States is really an Idiot and a lame duck
So a wicked drop from 104 to 96ish….on the way to 93 ?
Surf City says the Dollar is Overdue for a Yearly Cycle Low…how about August 1 .?
93 is a great support area ( horizontal dotted line and Bottom of a Perfect fork with a handle all the way back from the beginning of this Dollar Bull market) (look at all those fingers on the handle…has to be true right )
Yes Virginia I said Dollar Bull Market….which it is by definition…just look at that 200 week moving average…hasn’t even thought of turning down…amazing really never seen one just plowing along at 45%
Still Higher highs and higher Lows on the price as well
What IF ?
Lets enjoy July !
“The Prez of the United States is really an Idiot”
Gonna get political for one minute.
Yes, he talks like a 4th grader and that makes him sound like an idiot.
But its been PROFESSIONAL politicians (who often started out as fast talking attorneys) that navigated this ship onto the rocks. Attorneys turned politicians know one thing — how to spin weasel words and avoid accountability. Snakeoil salesmen, all of them. And then downhill from there, too. At least DJT speaks his mind and calls it as he sees it. (Right or wrong)
He’s battling the Dems, the media, and even the (corrupt) leadership within his own party. Not to mention large swaths of the DeepState/Intelligence branch too. All of whom are philosophically or monetarily opposed to what he wants to do. (Yes there are questions as to whether he was sincere during the campaign.)
But is he really an idiot? He spoke during the campaign that we’re in a bubble. Politicians don’t say those sorts of things. If they were even to recognize the fact, which is notable on its own. My sense is that he has great tactical support, but he’s facing overwhelming odds.
So what’s he done? Gorsuch was a good pick. Over whomever HRC would have selected. Pulling out of Paris was smart. AGW is a hoax (although climate change is real and perpetual — its just not CO2), so carbon taxes are all politics/$ skimming and zero science. I think he has to keep Russia at arms lengths for now given the faux news. I’m sure he’s had to make other concessions against his better judgement. Don’t get me wrong, like so many I voted against HRC not for DJT. My horse was Rand. Who understands the medical mess better than most. So my take is that DJT has already done more than O did in two terms (O’Care is a budgetary and policy disaster) and he’s trying to get us out of the quicksand instead of in deeper as HRC would have done. Sure, HRC had a name and “experience”, but what had she ever really accomplished? Her effort at (socialist) health care reform was also a disaster. That doesn’t even get into the body bag story. That’s HOW she managed things. No thanks.
In the end, its probably a losing battle for him and the States. Too late in the movie for a recovery. The damage began in 1913 if not before. FDR accelerated it, as did Johnson. Nixon didn’t change course either. Hopefully, there’s a future generation that will learn the right lessons, but if they do it would be in spite of public education.
Good Stuff pedro …I didn’t know half of that…who’s the idiot eh ?
For sure Clinton would have been same old thing..
Anyhow we cant do nothing about it so we chart on.
Pedro – you nailed my sentiments to the letter. Thanks.
As I recall, Plunger said it could go as low as, I believe, 95.45 .
Pedro, you said ‘Pulling out of Paris was smart. AGW is a hoax (although climate change is real and perpetual — its just not CO2), so carbon taxes are all politics/$ skimming and zero science.’
I’m afraid I cannot let that pass uncorrected. There are many times that you hear stuff discussed and you also hear facts and figures thrown backwards and forwards to support both sides of an argument, but unless you have an intimate knowledge of the subject you really don’t know who to believe. I do have an intimate knowledge of the weather – I’ve been a professional Meteorologist for one of the worlds leading forecast and research centres since 1987.
What you can argue about (if you like), is why the worlds climate is warming at the moment, and how long it will continue to warm. You can also argue about the cause. What you cannot argue about is the fact that it is happening. The evidence is everywhere and it is conclusive. I can honestly put my hand on my heart and say that in all my 30 years experience, I have never met anyone in the meteorological community who has an agenda (I cannot speak for the politicians). Political parties come and go, but the science that we are doing is continuous and we have absolutely no incentive to do anything other than speak the truth. It makes absolutely no difference to us, our jobs or the future of the meteorological professionals whether our world is warming cooling or remaining stable. We all have to share this world and all of my colleagues just want to be able to use the knowledge, expertise and computing power at our disposal to better understand our weather, climate and any possible future problems we may have to face.
We all know the amazing leap in technology that has taken place in the last 20 or 30 years and that has enabled us to get a much better insight into the implications of our selfish actions. You really can’t deplete the Earths resources and pump damaging gases into the atmosphere and expect it to have no effect whatsoever.
Here are just a few very simple statements of fact. As a professional in this field, who knows where these numbers come from and the way they are measured, recorded and calculated, all I can say is that I promise you they are reliable…
There are 4 main greenhouse gases (gases known to act in a way that traps heat on our planet), these are water vapour, Methane, Carbon Dioxide and Nitrous Oxide. Water vapour (clouds) are of course a natural and desirable greenhouse gas. Since approximately 1800 Methane in the atmosphere has increased from around 700 parts per million (ppm) to at least 2000 ppm, CO2 has increased from around 900 ppm to at least 1800 ppm and Nitrous Oxide from 800 ppm (approx) to at least 1200 ppm. Can we reasonably expect this to have no effect ?
Since the mid 1800’s average global surface temperature has increased by over one degree Celsius. If we don’t stop it before we rise another degree, the impacts will be very large.
Since the early 1990’s global sea level has risen by about 8cm (current rate of change is over 3mm per year and increasing). Why ? The seas are filling up. Why ? The rising global temperatures are even greater in the Arctic and Antarctic.
Back to my earlier point. You can argue why and you can argue about how much hotter it will eventually get. You cannot deny it’s happening. We aren’t just predicting it like we were 20 years ago – it’s actually happened, we are measuring it, and it is going to continue. The point at which it stops, will depend on how well or badly we look after our planet and its atmosphere.
Wow Northstar….You got me now. I have been a doubter of all this. Exceptionally well explained in such a short essay.
Thanks a ton
Do you feel this phenomena is being exploited by politicians however ?
I appreciate your comments, especially as a professional in the field.
I don’t doubt your sincerity for a moment.
I concur climate change is ongoing. Has been throughout the earth’s history.
I disagree on many of your other points.
There are really only three essential questions:
Is the planet heating up to threatening levels? Is mankind a principal cause of that change? And is it advisable to spend trillions to reverse those changes?
Paraphrasing
“The planet is warming, and our measurements prove it” — see Anthony Watts on the selection of measurement points.
The hottest period in recent human history was the Dust Bowl era of the 1930s. Since then, we’ve seen more new record cold readings than new record warm.
There is also considerable evidence that the planet was notably warmer in the not too distant past, without having been impacted by industrial activity. The medieval warm period and the Roman era, among them. (Changes in the earth’s climate over the last 200 years are miniscule when compared with our knowledge of climate variability over the last 10,000 years and beyond. Suggesting man’s role is correspondingly modest.)
Predictions that warming would raise sea levels and inundate low lying island nations have proven largely false.
It is also clear to me that politicians do have an agenda here, and they use public funds to advance it. And the corruption at the IPCC involving deliberate falsification of data and methodology has been revealed for all who care to look closely.
Researchers in the field dependent on public grant money had better produce results that satisfy those who fund the research, if they want their careers to continue. (I’m sure those working in the field of shorter term weather forecasting have ample professional credibility since that isn’t their focus.)
I regularly encounter posts from retired members of the scientific community with expertise in the field who have recanted their positions once they feel they have the freedom to speak honestly.
Re CO2, I think the more persuasive evidence is that warming comes first, which encourages plant life, which results in more CO2 being produced. The direction of causation is reversed. Its more complicated than that with a chicken and egg relationship once you add the water vapor and cloud formation, but AGW advocates won’t even acknowledge that.
Finally, if the issue is so critical and the outlook so dire, why is so little pressure being applied to nations like China that rely heavily on polluting coal? Most of the industrial growth is occurring outside the West. This is ultimately a program of socialist redistribution from the West to the East involving huge sums of money that would allow key agents to profiteer through the taxing regimes put in place.
As for the final question, I’m comfortable with my view that the earth is in a decades long cooling cycle, and we have more to fear from abnormally cold conditions (and the shortening of growing seasons) than from warming. Lots of lessons from the Maunder Min to contemplate there.
Finally, I’d be happy to take this discussion off the board if you’d care. I don’t have a lot of time at this moment, but over the summer I’ll have time enough to provide ample citations on these points. pdl
Hi Pedro, thanks for your measured response. Like you, I have limited time right now, but in response to some of your points…
I’m not a retired member of the scientific community, free to say what I like. I’m 48 years old and in the midst of my career. I am free to speak because what I say is what I know to be the truth.
I have no political agenda at all, in fact I have no allegiance to any political party – I’ll give my backing to anyone who speaks from the heart, with sincerity and compassion, and is capable of making reasoned decisions.
You are right to point out that the planet has been both warmer and colder in the past than it is now. Changing climate is nothing new. What is different is that this time the levels of atmospheric gases are being altered by mankinds activity. It would be displaying a complete lack of knowledge of atmospheric physics to suggest otherwise. The current rate of change in global sea level and particularly polar temperatures is at the very least concerning.
Changing climate is fine if ecosystems have the time to change and adapt. Genuine, honest projections (currently on track) from people (colleagues) with no agenda at all suggest we may have a big issue to deal with. It happened in the past I hear you say, let it happen, it’s not a problem. The thing is that in the past we didn’t have millions, billions of people living in cities right next to the ocean. The UK is smashing record rainfall and high temperature records every year, but low temperature records are not even challenged. Island communities around the entire planet are seeing the effects and joining together to call for action. The Solomon Islands have already lost at least 5 islands to sea level rise https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/sea-level-rise-swallows-5-whole-pacific-islands/ Miami is also a case in point http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20170403-miamis-fight-against-sea-level-rise If the Earth was cooling, we wouldn’t be seeing dramatic reductions in ice volumes, and we wouldn’t be measuring year on year rapid rise in sea levels. But we are. I’m not making this up. We are actually measuring this, here and now.
There are many ways of arguing (and convincingly) that there is nothing to worry about. Some will still be saying it as our cities become overwhelmed, and whole climate patterns shift and global ocean circulations shift, causing rapid changes. By then it’ll be too late to avert the worst effects. The world won’t end, humanity won’t be wiped out, but we will be living on a very different planet. Question is – how much are we prepared to let it change ? Because once we get another degree or two warmer we’ll have very little choice or control. The processes involved become self-reinforcing and much, much harder to stop.
Hi Fully, it’s really unfortunate and frustrating. As scientists we’re taught not to jump to conclusions and to test and re-test everything before even thinking about drawing any conclusions. I’ll give you a very small example. We say ‘there is a slightly greater than normal chance that we’ll have a cooler than normal Winter’. The press say ‘coldest Winter in 100 years on the way’. Politicians, like newspapers, are mostly (I won’t say all), biased, with a pre-determined point of view which fits whatever agenda they happen to have. It’s very, very difficult to retain a truly open mind, and remain completely subjective. It’s human nature to develop bias as you develop your thought processes. How often does a bad tempered rant on social media ever change the minds of those on opposing sides ? Pretty much never, it just slides into an increasingly heated, exchange of personal attacks.
Forget the hype, forget the drama and just stick to the known, indisputable, undeniable facts. Of course some will say black is white, but there is nothing you can do about that. Here for example is a display showing the volume of Arctic sea ice we have measured since 1979…
http://www.haveland.com/share/arctic-death-spiral.png
Yes, it went up a bit in 2014/2014, but just look at the overall pattern !
We need to stop arguing about it and decide if we can be bothered to try and mitigate the worst of the effects that we’re going to see in the next few decades. Many doubted the science to begin with, but here we are years later with all of the predictions playing out in front of us. If things deteriorate from here on, it won’t be because we weren’t warned. Party politics shouldn’t come into it, but anything to gain votes/power/money – you know how it goes.
Hi Northstar, no doubt you know what you are talking about being a meteorologist and all so I don’t want to sound nor trying to be confrontational but just wanted to put a couple points out for discussion. I had read that one of the North poles had moved upwards of 60 KM last year, could this not be why we are seeing all the earthquake and volcano activity? Along with crops freezing in Spain this year? I am just wondering how much volcanic ash gets emitted into the atmosphere when these volcanoes erupt, would they be a large contributor to the problem?
Pedro touched on this I believe, the Paris Accord never addressed the pollution put into the atmosphere from China and India so it seems more like an economic levelling which is desired, along with a nice tax grab for soon to be bankrupt governments. When you are in a skyscraper in Beijing and can’t see the building across the street, I agree that there is a problem, but if the legislation doesn’t include one of the worlds biggest culprits then it is not good for the people of America. Thanks for the contribution.
Hi Randy. Thanks for your response. It’s getting very late here in the UK, so I’ll post my response tomorrow if that’s ok.