Loading ...Plunger’s Strategy Session
Editor’s Note :
Buckle Up : Posted with Permission : Plunger’s Latest from Rambus Chartology.
https://rambus1.com/2017/06/18/weekend-report-plungers-strategy-session/
PS…Oil Down , TLT UP…Plunger’s strategy looks good today
Amazing stuff. Thanks Plunger
Excellent summary, particularly on gold (as insurance) liquidations.
Thanks for sharing.
And for putting Spock’s work into context.
What’s perplexing me is Spock’s Hurst Cycle forecast for USD. I’m ‘convinced’ that it describes an ‘accurate’ path for USD, and the Hurst Cycle path does not portend any significant move up for USD from here.
A question. Do you anticipate another bond panic/ rout (i.e. leading to more gold liquidations) ??
All the patterns we care about are pointing to a date when Congress takes on the debt ceiling down here.
And I’m not about to try to score that upcoming firestorm in June. In the end it gets resolved, of course. But how much heaving and shaking do we see first?
Pedro, David Stockman has written a lot on this issue. He is controversial to some. Not to me, I think he is right on. It’s going to be a wild ride.
First off I don’t really know much about the Hurst cycle. Frankly I am not a short/Int term cycles guy. Not saying they don’t work, but one can’t do everything. I subscribe to the view which Richard Russel used to espouse ” Cycles… where are they when you need them.
Expect another bond panic rout ? Not I don’t, however there are many well informed analysts who do. Jeff Gundlatch etc. Eventually we have a super bear bond market, but I think it is years away. I could give you a long analysis to support this view. Thinks bonds from 1873-1895 and 1929-1942. Thats where we are. That’s why I have the confidence to go long bonds here
Bond bulls post “panic” of 1873 (failure of RR bonds, right?); and crash of ’29. OK. 22yrs, and 13yrs, respectively.
We’ve now been in a bond bull (for Treasuries) since 1980. 37 years and counting.
Yet bonds (debt) are the most plentiful they’ve been in all human history.
Can’t point to anything that says you’re wrong though. Not yet. But ‘long in the tooth’ doesn’t quite do it justice.
Eric Peters takes the other view
https://t.co/jwYQkbK9xx
And Ben Hunt (appended to this post by Hanson) thinks
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-06-19/hanson-housing-bubble-20-end-nigh
If you think that this Fed still has your back, Mr. Investor, the way they had your back in 2009 and 2010 and 2011 and 2012 and 2013 and 2014 and 2015 and 2016 … well, I think you are mistaken. I think Janet Yellen broke up with you this week.
….
I know I sound like a raving Marxist to be saying this, that the Federal Reserve system and all its brethren systems were established specifically to serve the interests of Capital in its age-old battle with Labor. But yeah, that’s exactly what I’m saying. Propping up financial markets? That’s a nice-to-have. Preserving Capital as the apex predator in our social ecosystem? There’s your must-have.
*****
EWers are also watching for a fifth leg down for TLT, that would (if it happens) confirm a trend change at high degree. Again … not there yet though.
TLT.. coming soon
Indeed. When the ‘crash’ comes, miners get liquidated to cover stocks but unlikely gold as it offers safe haven.
Wow, amazing work (once again) Plunger! Thanks for posting Fully! Rambus… just incredible charting!
Excellent post Plunger but what will a continuation of the bear market do to the miners and then eventually to future supply? I tend to agree with Frank on his thought here…https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q5Fj6fzeAbY
Are the managers of our fiat monetary system not the brightest minds coming from the best Universities being paid to manage the system? Is the continuation of the bear market in precious metals/base metals in the systems best interest? IMO, I believe they are going to strive for the “Goldilock” playbook. How that will all play out is another story but that is where the smart trading can be employed.
JS You are giving these people way too much credit. Think of just one name for a while…. Larry Summers…. Brightest minds?
The last thing we all need is some of these “brightest minds” managing the system.
Continuation of the bear market…. Low prices are the cure for low prices….
Oh and that’s what they have been doing is striving for the goldilocks playbook right up to 2008. How did that work out?
I actually like Frank a lot, despite his love of the Clinton’s. Everything I have seen him say has been well grounded. I watched him tag Doug Casey pretty hard 2 years go in a roast. I really admired him for that. He pointed out that every single thing that Casey predicted on the Phil Donahue show didn’t happen. You can google it.
Plunger did you ever wonder just what the trading desk at the Fed is trading?
Compelling evidence for PM carnage. Thanks Plunger. A bit of a bounce here would be nice (give me a chance to lighten up some more, just in case this latest interest rate rise doesn’t do what the last 3 did).