Loading ...Calling Tops !!
Is a Fools game IMHO
In these run away markets you can only hope to call a Top AFTER the fact.
Wait for a valid topping pattern …or at least a secondary echo top
You cannot nail a top unless by accident.
How do I know….years of experience trying to short !
Gave it up years ago thank goodness.
Wanna short something ?
Follow Plunger.
Yes, echo top with a complimentary negative divergence is ideal…I am not short, closed my longs and watching…
Calling tops and bottoms (I think of them as turns) is easy.
Call the DEGREE of the tops and bottoms is the hard part.
Daneric is calling a top imminent (for the move from Feb 16) but he’s conceding that the larger top may still be well down the road yet.
And I agree on that point.
Well stated pedro_deleon…
I know you don’t think the DOW/Gold ratio is going to reach 1/1, but right now I’m looking at a $21,000 gold price and rising unless the Fed starts getting aggressive in raising rates and reducing their balance sheet.
Bold Call neil…NOT at all reasonable nor based in any TA you can cite….Sounds like a Bo Call
Not TA based, just looking at historical precedent circa 1980, nothing more. The DOW is currently at 21,000 and rising so that’s why I chose that number.
neil…with all due respect …this 1:1 thing only ever happened once for a very short time…why must it happen again
Thousands of goldbugs lost their asses waiting for that to happen already.
It could happen with Dow at 800 just as easily
At the risk of sounding harsh…its a ridiculous notion IMO
Just as ridiculous as the old saw The Silver to Gold ratio HAS to revert to 15 to 1 because in the 1800s that’s where it was.
Sorry..I know too many people seriously financially hurt by these notions
The gold/silver ratio was also at around 15 to 1 in 1980.
No worries Fully. I get it. We are looking at this from two different perspectives. I didn’t buy my first gold coin until 2003, so my experience is limited. Plus I’m a lot further from retirement than a lot of other folks in this game.
Neil,
I think what Fully is saying, and would agree, many investors before have formulated a future price for Gold based on 100’s of different historical ratios, only to go broke or dying without the ratio ever being met. I’ve been hearing Gold $5000 since the late 80’s. I’m 51 years old and still waiting. Have we seen hyper-inflation in a major developed country since WWII? No. Could it happen? Sure. If gold does hit $21,000 most people will have more important things to worry about like food, shelter, and safety. Gold is not edible, heavy to carry around, and in a crisis being able to openly buy and sell with it may put your life at risk. If SHTF, the most precious metal will be lead, IMHO. (Sorry Fully, Off-Topic)
I’ve had several older and much wiser investors tell me you will go broke not once, not twice, but maybe three times or more, before the hardest lessons of investing really begin to sink in.
Take a look at TLT and TIP for two good correlations to Gold.
PKP
Gold:Silver ratio at 15 in 1980…ya…for 15 minutes
🙂
Good trading Neil
best
Fully