What a ride the PM space has been so far in 2017, and by extension 2016.

We saw a huge move up to the high of $1375 in Gold, after the ‘Low’ of $1045. We saw a very clear 5 wave move up out of the low, with a very clear A-B-C correction.

I have theoriesed before on how that may still be in effect. Perhaps this A-B-C was only an A? This Rally out from £1122 a B, with a C yet to come. I guess we will find out soon enough.

The only reason I am thinking along these lines is it would throw people off, and would let big institutional money in at an opportune price instead of chasing.

The A-B-C correction at the tail end of 2016, declined peak to trough around $253. A substational amount. Most folks are targeting $1300 for this move. If a top were to form at only $1298, guess where an equivalent drop from this peak would get us to? You’ve guessed it…$1045.

A Double bottom would then be in play, A multi year bottom formed, a stronger base to move up from. I’m not saying this will happen, but it is why I try to examine all possibilities. As we are aware, Mr Markets first moves tend to be head-fakes. I recall Rambus recently posting regarding the H&S top at the end of the Bull Market and start of the Bear, how price broke back above the neckline, sucked in Bulls again, before the killer move started down in earnest. Be aware, anything could happen.

 

Note: If you were to consider this Rally out of the $1122 low as a rising channel, with the move from $1375, to $1122 as a flagpole…Potential Bear flag here which is bigger than most patterns more obvious. I am not being bearish here, ok perhaps slightly, but Be aware. ANYTHING could happen.