OK, so far so good, but what’s next ? I think we’ve all been following the huge triangle formation in the metals and miners. The HUI has made a clear, unequivocal breakout. $Gold might have. I say that, because it depends how much importance you attach to that huge ‘Trump spike’. Here’s a chart to show you what I mean, and also to show you what to watch.

So rejection at the upper rail, currently around $1290 opens up a drop to the blue support rain again, currently around $1240.

A couple of things to think about here. Firstly, we’re approaching Easter. Trading volume will, no doubt, start to fade. This is traditionally an ideal set up for a smackdown. Could we see a ‘mysterious entity’ dump the equivalent of several months global silver production onto the market. This brings me onto my second point – the COT position in silver. The specs are massively long, and the commercials are massively short. In fact, I think the numbers are record breaking. In that position, there can only be one winner. Here are the figures as of April 4th, courtesy of Goldseek…

If the specs win, the commercials will soon start to panic and cover their short positions. If that happens we get a big spike in the silver price, almost certainly taking it to $21-$22, perhaps more. If the commercials get another helping hand, well, we all know what that means – it’s happened so many times before. Blatant manipulation of the markets. My personal view is that a smackdown is quite likely. Probably not enough to kill the bull though, and with each passing month/year it’s going to get harder to orchestrate these manipulations as price discovery begins to move to the Far East, along with the vast majority of available, above ground metal. Coupled with the slow demise of the petro-dollar, global conflict is, sadly, likely to put a strong floor under metals prices.