Wow. 2005. I thought it might have been 2006. That was at the height of that tremendous bull run. A lot of people were up 2000% on portfolios. Quite a gathering at Freedom Inn. ๐
In the current environment TA trumps FA by a huge margin and if PM’s fail here it will be even more the case (fundamentals shmundamentals). GDP low and flat, Inflation rising on pace, Gov’t (presumably) raises their debt ceiling AND the interest they will be paying going forward…and PM’s don’t rise? WTF! Even if PM’s drop from here briefly or drastically (revisit ’15 lows), there is NO WAY I’m bailing.
Yesterday before today’s CPI print the forecast for Feb-April was 2.5-2.6 (flat) now today it’s been raised to 2.7 (actuality), but again concensus/forecast is freek’n flat….2.6 to 2.7 through May? WTF are these economists in the concensus and forecasting thinking – if not for outright deceit. Since 3/2015 the inflation trend has been on the rise – even an idiot or a 5th grader (me) could infer that the trend isn’t going to break in the next 2-3 months, just like it hasn’t in the prior 20. Granted inflation isn’t yet ‘critical’ but to think the Fed has the ammo to put a lid on it at 3% given US/consumer debt levels is sheer idiocy.
That would be much nicer than a breakdown. Maybe we all need to do some kind of dance or chant or something…
Wearing HUI hats, of course. ๐
North My Yahui T Shirt shrunk….since 2005 …or maybe I grew
๐
Wow. 2005. I thought it might have been 2006. That was at the height of that tremendous bull run. A lot of people were up 2000% on portfolios. Quite a gathering at Freedom Inn. ๐
Hey, Fully, you gotta frame that T. ๐
In the current environment TA trumps FA by a huge margin and if PM’s fail here it will be even more the case (fundamentals shmundamentals). GDP low and flat, Inflation rising on pace, Gov’t (presumably) raises their debt ceiling AND the interest they will be paying going forward…and PM’s don’t rise? WTF! Even if PM’s drop from here briefly or drastically (revisit ’15 lows), there is NO WAY I’m bailing.
Look at the forecast table below the chart here:
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-cpi
Yesterday before today’s CPI print the forecast for Feb-April was 2.5-2.6 (flat) now today it’s been raised to 2.7 (actuality), but again concensus/forecast is freek’n flat….2.6 to 2.7 through May? WTF are these economists in the concensus and forecasting thinking – if not for outright deceit. Since 3/2015 the inflation trend has been on the rise – even an idiot or a 5th grader (me) could infer that the trend isn’t going to break in the next 2-3 months, just like it hasn’t in the prior 20. Granted inflation isn’t yet ‘critical’ but to think the Fed has the ammo to put a lid on it at 3% given US/consumer debt levels is sheer idiocy.
Agree with your analysis except for one thing
Commodities seem to be hitting resistance. Rambus has excellent charts showing that they indeed are breaking down.
Perhaps commodity inflation was a dead cat bounce