Loading ...Monthly Charts are Best
For the Pure Simplicity
2017: The End of the Golden Triangle
2017 is THE year, One way or the Other.
Everything should be crystal clear by New Years day 2018
Notice the Apex of this Massive Triangle…1200 ( Same price where the Big Drop Ended)
Gold has gyrated in a tight range around 1200 for 4 years now.
There have been a million Bull Calls and bear calls all thru these 4 years …and wouldn’t you know it
The right call…NOBODY had it…Flat !!
Wouldn’t that be a tease if we finished the year right there ?
On the monthly chart I like to reference a 35 EMA as a good way to delineate between a bull and a bear market. Just rule-of-thumb with minor excursions.
On your chart what is happening is all the energy is being focused onto the end point. When it breaks look out….Impulse move!
But here is the thing. Wither way it breaks, either up or down it brings a bull market in the PM stocks in my opinion. Upside… that’s a no brainer, but downside it means a economic contraction where commodities go into the basement oil goes down sub 30 possibly and then economic disruption reigns. After the initial drop in the gold stocks the companies profits start flowing to the bottom line due to lower input costs and we get a bull market on out hands in fairly short order.
Agree.
These two has been our standing options all along since 2011:
1) resumed bull market with a second (2008/09 was first) and larger deflationary wave coming much later
2) a second and larger deflationary wave before the real resumed bull market begins
And whenever the second larger deflationary wave hits it will kickstart the CBs.
The person whom has been the largest advocate of a second and larger deflationary wave has been Mike Maloney.
Also agree, I’m betting counterintuitively Yellen will not raise this month (amidst great words to the contrary) because they can’t afford contraction and thus must give the inflationary baby bull more time to (conclusively) grow – being behind the inflation curve is the unstated strategy. The other consideration if they do raise will be the effects on the bond market. Inflation or bust, literally.
My PM wet dream would be for China or Russia to place a yuge order at the COMEX and stand for delivery in phys, not cash – that should separate paper from physical in a heartbeat – one can always hope.
Considering the fundamentals, I don’t see how it can break downward, unless we have another 2008 type situation. Sovereign debt + demand + production levels. The USD can go either way, but I think the current administration also wants USD down, so that helps as well.