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Here are a couple scenarios I’m watching in NAK. Wondering what kind of reaction happens at that S/R rail that looks in between $3-3.25 region. A lot of hot money in this so I’m cautious but it has shown the ability to rip in the past and keep ripping. A replication of the 2003 move would get in the $7 range. GL All
Thanks for the analysis. I’m watching VERY closely, having seen a 300% return on my investment so far.
Very nice, weekly RSI is starting to peg pretty hard but we are also early in this gold cycle. If I had to bet I would expect that big rail to initiate a decent wave of selling but you never know, it could build a pattern right on top of that rail or right above it. GL
This stock will depend more on news and less on technicals than many, as its movements will continue to depend heavily on developments related to overcoming opposition to permitting.
A big question mark for me has always been the extent to which technical indicators might reflect impending news. It’s not just a matter of overt insider trading (here, for example, as by persons with hypothetical insider knowledge of the permitting process). It could be innocent yet astute opinion–something like the way trial lawyers are said to be able to guess well at verdicts by the way the jury members have looked and by how long they’ve been deliberating. It could be something in between such as detection and correct interpretation by company insiders or large speculators of not-quite-intentional smiles and near-winks.
Often–but far from always–one can guess that good news is coming if a stock is quiet. I won’t post examples, but look at how relatively tight TK.v’s Bollinger bands were until good news at the end of last week (I was actually wondering about an impending takeover)–much tighter than other Zn-Pb-Ag stocks’ Bolllinger bands. Was the technical indicator actually predicting the news (with managers careful not to leak)? I doubt we’ll ever know.
If I had to guess–and perhaps I am wrongfully disparaging the NAK entourage–I would have to wonder whether the opposite sort of thing might occur with NAK. In other words whether someone somewhere might start leaking news about permitting, whether to insiders or to outside speculators, and that we might see hints of impending in the technicals.
But it’s a guessing game. As you say, it really is the news, not the technicals.
(I don’t own NAK and never have.)
Respectfully…Its always all in the charts
IF someone knows something you will see a breakout Or breakdown. That’s why we follow the charts the Fundamentals are unknowable
preach it brotha
You could make that argument about any mining company, no?
Going to NAK’s website I find this; “In total, the current Pebble resource estimate includes 6.44 billion tonnes in the measured and indicated categories containing 57 billion lb copper, 70 million oz gold, 3.4 billion lb molybdenum and 344 million oz silver; and 4.46 billion tonnes in the inferred category, containing 24.5 billion lb copper, 37 million oz gold, 2.2 billion lb molybdenum and 170 million oz silver(1). Quantities of palladium and rhenium also occur in the deposit. The Pebble deposit possesses the volumes, grades, and metallurgical characteristics to potentially support a modern, long-life mine.
Is this something to get overly excited about? I see that there are “Total Shares Outstanding (millions)=265,000,000. Doing some arithmetic @ $2.63
that would give this company a market cap of only…$ 696,950,000. Good value or a momentum play?
I think what you have witnessed in this stock is a combination of both. I sure as hell wouldn’t buy it here and now tho.
Karl, your comments reminded me of some Gann quotes concerning unexpected news. BTW, I enjoy your musings.
SUDDEN UNEXPECTED NEWS
“How can you tell what the market will do or what to do when some sudden, unexpected news happens over night? My answer is that coming events cast their shadows before, and the market is nearly always prepared for these events and gives some indication of change in trend before these events take place.”
“As a rule, these unexpected events are not unexpected to someone on the inside, because someone knows something about news of this kind in advance and anticipates it, and the market also gives an indication of the change of trend. When bad news is out it is time to buy. When good news is out it is time to sell.”
Excellent. and Interesting
Called the buy theme at 40 cents no one waned it then