Loading ...Mother of All Bull Traps Update
I posted the first of this May 28th of last year. Time to show the charts again. Had some direct hits and had some hard back tests but on track so far with my original educated guess…
We’re obviously at a crossroads for everything. I do not believe, as my first three charts show, that the gold miners have broken up. I believe the GDX and XAU have an upward sloping parabolic top rail and that they’re just backtesting the H&S breakdown. This parabolic top rail does not work for GDXJ. It has broken up but is also backtesting nice and cleanly the Head and Shoulders breakdown. I believe the miners will now fall.
This could change quickly but it’s what I believe.
Most of the charts below I haven’t changed at all, and I’m just reposting them as they are since my original post. Some of the charts have been added though.
I’ve added a linear Gold and Silver chart showing possible massive Head and Shoulder patterns. I’ve added a copper and silver monthly which also backtest nice and clean the long term breakdown.
I’m buying the “America Great Again” Kool Aid. I believe the stock markets will rock. I believe the dollar will rock. I believe gold and silver will go down majorly. I believe after Trump is inaugurated you’ll see these things resume.
I’m just really not sure how oil and copper go down in this environment though but deep in my gut I think they will. Don’t know why. Doesn’t make sense if the U.S. is going to rock so this may be wrong. Do have to watch oil. It’s slightly above the major breakdown line and may go up with the markets. Also Sir Rambus is showing how the oil stocks have broken up on good volume.
Keep this in mind: This may all be wrong! Do your own due diligence. I don’t want to be blamed. I’m “educated I suppose” guessing. That’s it.
My 3rd child and second boy is due early March. I’ve already disappeared but came out from under my rock for this but you’ll probably never hear from me again after baby #3! lol. These kids are time consuming and my wife!? I never hear the end of it when I’m charting…
Hope you get something out of these charts. Good luck to you all!
Thanks for your very much anticipated update and good luck with the new baby.
Thanks Music Man! Not looking forward to the 2am baby alarm clocks but can’t wait till Carter gets almost 2 like my boy Cameron. What a joy he and my older daughter Caitlyn have been!
Hi Chuck … thanks for re-posting. IT could indeed start happening from here. But Gold 500-target seems unbelievable (for now).
As for GDXJ … see my post above yours for what I see.
Please keep us updated in due time!
Well duh. lol. I remember seeing that when we first came up here but I never actually laid a line on a chart just did the ‘ole lay a piece of paper on the chart. Forgot that hadn’t broken out. Thanks!
Also, the position of that C where gold may go is just a lay down of a letter. A pure guess. Nothing was measured or anything. Plus, in hindsight with it being a linear chart it probably will not go that low.
Good luck with the family. Kids + are something else.
Personally, I’d be President of the World and have at least a few Nobel Prizes under my belt by now w/o them. I would surely know how to predict market movements–any market–with >>98% accuracy w/o them.
However they’re visiting now and awfully nice, very helpful, and a great comfort. They were fun most of the time when much younger too.
Very casual extremely recreational charting can work–if there is yelling because of a diaper needing changing you can’t concentrate though and actually the diaper changing is more fun and fulfilling in the long run. But you probably already know.
Thanks. That had me laughing from beginning to end! And yes. An absolute joy!
Fantastic charts, and really useful. We’re standing at a bit of a crossroads here…
Thanks Northstar. Absolutely. Resolved shortly after inauguration surely?
Congratulations on the upcoming 3rd child Chuck, hope everything goes as smoothly as can be hoped for.
Thanks for the charts, I’m seeing some of the same things too on the very long term charts.
Thanks Jenkins. We’re excited.
Chuck, Sounds to me that you need to bid trips with long layovers so you can chart in peace 🙂
Ref the USD comments. Actually those charts make perfect sense. USD gets stronger as the post bubble contraction progresses.
Well, it’s not just the kids. Work has gotten crazier and they’re making us work like slaves on the road it feels like. Also several other hobbies have rose up to occupy most my time.
All that charting I used to do was at a time when my work was less and my home life less hectic. I could never have the energy to ever do that again.
Now most my charting is with an index card or something similar laid down on my phone to see where a rail would be! 🙂 lazy charting at its finest…
Good to hear from you Plunger. Hope things are well.
Think just the dollar goes up and everything goes down or do the flood of money into the U.S. cause the stock markets to go up with the dollar and everything else down?
The possibility of copper and oil going down confuse not just me, I know.
Thanks for the charts, Parabolic Chuck. (May I call you PC? Though I hope you’re not “PC”!)
My pleasure. Call me that anytime. Definitely not PC! Haha.
Sorely miss your daily posting, Chuck, but of course I understand. The munchkins took me away from charting (on paper) when I was young, too. Even though I don’t have your talent, never did, charting was always fun, and addictive. Now the munchkins have kids of their own, two of them already graduated from college. Yep, time does fly.
Keep well. Thanks for the great post.
I think if I weren’t a pilot I’d want to be a detective. Being a chartist is kind of like that. One is trying to figure out things. What’s next? What’s hidden from me? What’s this saying? One can get obsessive over it. Like you said addicting!
I was addictive and charted at all hours every day. I would wake several times in the night and I always had to look and see what gold, silver, the dollar and the euro were doing! Was too much.
If I kept that up I’d have missed my munchkins grow up. I had to make them and other important things in my life #1 again or too much time would have flown by.
Thanks for the very kind words. I wish I could put all that energy into charting like I used to. Just can’t. Won’t.
I gotta say though… charting with an iPhone must have been a lot different than charting on paper! Now that’s old school but I bet one got more of an advantage way back then because there were so few people doing it. I’m sure I’d have loved it.
Take care of that growing family and see you around Silver Fox.