Cross Currents In Emerging Markets
The daily chart looks bullish in the ST:
The possible H&S that’s been building out is either going to fail altogether or build out another right hand shoulder:
What’s also interesting is there looks, at first glance, to be a perfect IH&S on the weekly given the backtest of the neckline:
However, the possible massive bear flag also on the weekly tells another story:
From a bearish point of view, if there is another small rally it could be just another backtest of the bottom rail of the above channel, which, if
it happened, could just be building out a further right hand shoulder on the possible H&S pattern on the daily above.
The monthly chart is having big trouble getting above the SMA 50:
In terms of macro, I don’t see how a rising $USD can be good for EM’s given they are often commodity exporters and if Trump
even seriously starts talking about tariffs on foreign produced goods into the US I can see this sector getting hit hard.
EEM seems to be on the move, here is what I posted a month ago:
https://goldtadise.com/?p=388572
I think it is ahead of the $USD.
I’m getting different outlooks depending on timeframes and individual countries.
Even within China, Chau Chad look different from FXI FXP and YINN YANG.
Bottom line, if gold is turning up, its a rates & $ reprieve. And EM reprieve too.
If not, they sink a bit further until that arrives.