Loading ...Pitchfork target reached to downside near $1120 – now what?
My target for gold to reach to the downside and still be in a potentially bullish pattern has now been reached. This target has been visible as a possibility for months and would be a good test of the structure.
The key is: now: will it break down below $1120, which would bring in a whole new world of hurt for goldbugs? Or is the low in? It ‘ought’ to be, if there is any bullish case left:
From 26 November 1 pm:
Pitchfork says $1120 here we go (including charts). Action-reaction lines say maybe $1177.
Nice work Dave. If it heads much further south, we really can put a fork in it 🙂 The way I see it, we’re either 1) bottoming right here 2) Headed for the previous lows of $1050ish, or 3) We really will be seeing some bargain prices at sub $1000.
My personal view is about 30% chance stopping here, 60% chance we drop to $1050ish and 10% chance it drops to some ridiculous number below $1000
Nothing scientific in those numbers, just my view after absorbing dozens of charts and points of view.
Thanks for the comment, Northstar! We are seeing a bounce here not a slice thrrough the 1120 level so that is one thing. However there has already been a lot of downside momentum so gold is due for this bounce. Any retest of $1120 will be telling.
Good chart Dave
Back to the centre would be just fine for now!
You have used (I hope) the 3 YCL points in Nov 2014, Dec 2015 and Dec 2016 almost equally spaced.
A trend line between Nov 2014 and Dec 2015 lows would like nice on this chart.
The trend remains up (but badly damaged).
Excellent work.
That looks great. I have a couple forks/ fans charts and the latest post w/ GOLD/USD showing its time for gold to get off the matt if its going to.