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I’m sticking with Spock’s read…the turn is fast approaching for the resumption of the gold bull. All else is noise…until it isn’t! 🙂
So history will repeat itself because all of the same conditions causing the effect will be the same/similar and outcome is predictable, right?
I am just showing a potential outcome, This is what happened from 1980 to 2001
There were a couple of rip roaring BMRs then . Certainly similar to this years rally
Personally I think Gary’s 1976 analog takes precedence to this here scenario. But this one cannot be discounted either
Gold was in a bull market from around 1970 to 1980 (10 years)
Gold was in a bull market from around 2001 to 2001(10 years)
Gold was in a bear market from 1980 to 2001 (21 years)
Gold should be in a bear market from 2011 to 2032 if we have seen a secular top in 2011.
The differences are :
Gold went from 35 to 873 in the 1970-1980 bull (25 fold increase)
Gold went from 250 to 1923 in the 2001-2011 bull (7.7 fold increase) a very poor performance.
Silver did NOT make a new all time high in 2011
IF we are still in a bul market the similarities are:
1st bull wave from 1970 to 1975 went from 35 to 195 (around 6 fold increase)
1st bull wave from 2001 to 2011 went from 250 to 1923 (around 7.7 fold increase)
Wave 2 (major correction) from 1975 to 1977 went from 195 to 103 (53% correction)
Wave 2 (major correction) from 2011 to 2016 went from 1923 to 1045 (54,5% correction)
So IF we are still in a bull market and the analogies continue we should be in the last wave of the bull market that should drive the gold price around 6000.
Time is against the bull market probabilities,price is still in favour.
We should find out very soon which way Gold will take.
Excellent work and delivery Mamare,
These are the two sexiest scenarios and I do like your second one and favor it !
Well done
Everybody understand ?
I also prefer the second scenarios,let’s hope it will materialize!!! 🙂
Along the same line Alf Field had projections.
Great work going back to 1970 to 1980.
His major three is still unfolding with correction 55% from 2011 top.
————————————————————————————-
In 2008 Alf Field wrote in his final report:
As this will be the last of these Updates, I will reveal my previously unpublished “back of the envelope” calculations in 2003. They were as follows.
Major ONE up from $256 to approximately $750 (a Fibonacci 3 times the $255 low);
Major TWO down from $750 to $500 (a serious decline of 33%);
Major THREE up from $500 to $2,500 (a Fibonacci 5 times the $500 low);
Major FOUR down from $2,500 to $2,000 (another serious decline);
Major FIVE up from $2,000 to $6,000 (also a 3 fold increase, same as ONE)
In 2008 update of then current situation:
That will allow us to update my original “back of the envelope” template to much higher levels, as follows:
Major ONE up from $256 to $1,015 (actually 4 times the $255 low);
Major TWO down from $1015 to $699, say $700 (a decline of 31%);
Major THREE up from $700 to $3,500 (a Fibonacci 5 times the $700 low);
Major FOUR down from $3,500 to $2,500 (a 29% decline);
Major FIVE up from $2,500 to $10,000 (also a 4 fold increase, same as ONE)
The Gold bull from 1970 to 1980 had only three major waves,2 up 1 down.
IF the bull market that started in 2001 is already over we still have only 3 visible major waves:
Wave 1 from 250 to 1033
Wave 2 from 1033 to 681
Wave 3 from 681 to 1923
The discrepancy here is the much weaker performance of both gold and silver compared to their performance from 1970 to 1980.
If price had followed the time(or the inverse) there would be no doubt that the gold bull market is over.
What we have now is a much weaker bull market than the previous without even the confirmation of a new silver all time high.
IF we are instead still in a bull market this one will be much longer (about twice) than the previous and the exact waves count will be possible only at the end of this bull.
Not with a major top forming in $USD here
Your evidence of a dollar top is compelling Spock
Thanks
In Elliott wave analysis rule of alternation applies.
In above chart analyst is projecting long side way correction similar to 1980 to 2001. That is not so for time and price under The Rule of alternation.
From bottom in 1970 gold did not have long correction. That arrived in Jan 1980 for 20 years and ended in 2001. Ever since gold went up with short (time)correction in 2008-2009. That correction followed with gold going to new high 1923.
Now this is the long correction say 4 y- 5 year in April 2017 ( A Fib number).
Per rule of correction this correction is not expected to last as long as the last one 1980 -2001.
http://www.mtpredictor.com/The-rule-of-Alternation